Since this week, A-Shares have accelerated their decline. Affected by the Russian Ukrainian war and the rise of global inflation expectations, the Shanghai composite index broke through 3200 points again today after breaking 3300 points yesterday. It was once as low as 3147 points (near the 250 week moving average of Shanghai Composite), and there was an obvious phenomenon of “killing more” on the disk.
It is slightly gratifying that in the afternoon, the major indexes and individual stocks of A-Shares realized a super V-shaped rebound. How to view the special trend in today’s session? Where will the future market go?
why did a shares fall sharply? Views of several sellers
In the afternoon, A-Shares fell sharply, and online platforms such as stock bar howled. There are different opinions on the reasons for the decline. Online speculation is that snowball products burst positions, private equity fund liquidation, quantitative trigger stop loss, a European sovereign wealth fund reduced positions, “fixed income +” fund is selling stocks, etc. However, affected by the reversal of the A-share situation, market sentiment turned from panic to recovery.
Mou Yiling, chief strategist at Minsheng securities, believes that the reason for the sharp intraday decline is more likely to come from the liquidity impact. First, the fluctuation of overseas funds is widening. On the same day, the total net sales of funds going north amounted to 10.934 billion yuan, while on March 7 and 8, the net sales of allocated funds going north even began to appear; Second, under the background of continuous market adjustment, among the financial products with net value data issued by China’s financial subsidiaries since March, the number of financial products with cumulative unit net value less than 1 has reached 11.35%. This part of financial products may face the pressure of stop loss and redemption of some investors; Over the same period, the private placement heavy position index fell in resonance with the public offering heavy position index. It is possible that the unit net value of some private placements has touched the warning line, resulting in the pressure of stop loss selling or debt side redemption.
Considering the current strong policy support, the low valuation level of the whole market and the strong technical support of the 250 week moving average, it is expected that after today’s venting, investors’ panic will converge, and the market is expected to enter the range shock pattern in the short term. It is suggested to lie down on the spot and wait for a rebound. At the same time, due to the damage of the midline trend, which is significantly weaker than the previous benchmark inference, the midline allocation opportunity may appear after June.
Nomura Orient International Securities believes that the market adjustment so far this week may be boosted by panic and stop loss operation. There is no overall redemption risk in public funds and other industries, but considering the decline of market risk appetite, stop loss operation, panic and the accumulation of overseas geographical conflicts, it is considered that the valuation consistency expectation of core stocks in some growth fields has been weakened, and the short-term pricing ability of the market has been weakened, resulting in overshoot of the market as a whole.
is lying down on the spot waiting for rebound? Or leave as soon as possible every high
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities gave a clear view and proposed that it is not advisable to “kill more” in a depressed mood. It is suggested to lie down on the spot and wait for a rebound. Considering the current strong policy support, the low valuation level of the whole market and the strong technical support of the 250 week moving average, it is expected that after today’s venting, investors’ panic will converge, and the market is expected to enter the range shock pattern in the short term. It is suggested to lie down on the spot and wait for a rebound. At the same time, due to the damage of the midline trend, which is significantly weaker than the previous benchmark inference, the midline allocation opportunity may appear after June.
It can be seen from the dynamic valuation of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Exchange (CSI) that the current valuation of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and China Securities Exchange (CSI) index is below 1000 times, and the current valuation of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and China Securities Exchange (SSE) index is below 1000 times, China Securities 500 has reached the extreme bottom area with the mean value down 1.5 times the standard deviation, and some industry indexes such as securities companies have also reached the extreme bottom area.
Nomura Orient International Securities said that from the perspective of medium and long-term allocation, A-Shares already have excellent opportunities. In the past market adjustment process, undervalued strategy and high growth certainty strategy can provide better defensive. However, for A-Shares that still focus on growth in the medium and long term, high growth certainty can often provide more effective defense, and become a safe haven in the short-term market and the preferred area for rebound after stabilization.
Nomura Orient International Securities suggests to pay attention to the investment opportunities under the main line of China’s steady economic growth, which are as follows: 1) among the infrastructure investment related to high certainty and steady growth, the areas with large incremental elasticity, especially the digital infrastructure, energy infrastructure and new energy power operators involved in the dual carbon field, and the central enterprise power group with “fire to power” is given priority among the power operators; 2) The financial industry benefiting from China’s loose policies, especially the insurance stocks with low valuation and greatly hit by the epidemic; 3) Other areas expected to benefit from easing include building materials, construction services, real estate and property services.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) also believes that growth stocks are expected to lead the rebound. With the implementation of the Fed’s interest rate increase, there is still room for further easing of China’s monetary policy, and the market liquidity expectation is expected to usher in periodic correction. With the annual report and the first quarterly report window approaching, the A-share market still has a meal market in the first half of the year. In terms of industry configuration, with the advent of the verification period of the first quarterly report, the boom track leaders such as new energy, semiconductors, medicine and military industry are expected to usher in phased repair, and the essential consumption sectors such as agriculture, food and textile and clothing benefiting from inflation expectations are also expected to usher in performance repair.
Mou Yiling believes that the current global “stagflation” risk has been included in the A-share asset price, but China’s upward inflation in exchange for the recovery of demand has not been included in the A-share asset price; At present, the market’s worries about the future of growth stocks have been reflected in the stock price to a certain extent, but the short-term high growth rate is still resilient; More importantly, investors have largely ignored that the downward trend of upstream resource prices has been reversed, and the upward price center needs to complete a large-scale pricing correction in a large-scale fluctuation. “Dead land” is war, the layout rebounds, and the inflation transaction is the most certain. Buy nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), crude oil (oil transportation, oil and gas exploitation) and coal; Recovery of layout demand: banks (regional banks and credit expansion around counties and townships) and real estate. The growth sector is optimistic: resource stocks in new energy (green power operation) and semiconductors and computers with sufficient adjustment.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities chief strategist Chen Guo said that the economic growth target of about 5.5% in the government work report in 2022 slightly exceeded the market’s expectation of 5.0-5.5%, the determination of “steady growth” was obvious, and there was room for fiscal, monetary and policy. As for the “steady growth” market, for the traditional infrastructure, we believe that the probability has entered the expected fulfillment stage. The resumption of trading shows that the maximum increase of this round of market has exceeded the average value of previous “steady growth” markets.
Chen Guo said that once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine slows down, the next expected time node of A-Shares or the upcoming quarterly market will be the preferred segments with high prosperity and expected to exceed expectations. Focus on: 1) some cyclical products with rising prosperity; 2) The bank that took the lead in the steady growth sector in the first quarter; 3) In the growth sector, photovoltaic modules / IGBT and semiconductor materials / CXO / military upstream / diaphragm and power battery leader / Gigabit broadband, etc., which still maintained a high boom in the first quarter and had no obvious damage to profitability; 4) Last year’s performance was significantly damaged, and the railway / thermal power expected to rebound in the first quarter.
