Industry configuration this week:
Over allocation: real estate, communications, national defense and military industry, banking, petroleum and petrochemical, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals
Standard configuration: basic chemical industry, food and beverage, textile and clothing, light industry manufacturing, medicine and biology, public utilities, comprehensive, non bank finance, automobile, mechanical equipment, coal, environmental protection, beauty care
Low configuration: steel, building materials, household appliances
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio since the beginning of the year is 0.06%, which is 2.31% relative to the excess return of CSI 300
Valuation: CSI 300iape fell below the 50th percentile, CSI 300pb fell below the 40th percentile, SSE IAPE fell slightly above the 30th percentile, SSE Pb was at the 20th percentile level, SSE 50iape slightly exceeded the 50th percentile, SSE 50pb was close to the 40th percentile line, gem IAPE fell below the 70th percentile, and gem Pb fell near the 75th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry has obvious ups and downs, among which coal, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, comprehensive and social services rank first. Combined with Pb and expected roe, industrial metals, phosphorus chemical industry, mini led, specialized special new, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, etc. have cost performance. Combined with PEG and expected g, network security, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, aerospace equipment, etc. have a higher prospect in a reasonable valuation range. Money & Interest Rate: the overall capital is loose, and the inter-bank liquidity is improved
Upstream
Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and international oil prices hit a new high
Improved demand drives the price of thermal coal higher
Aluminum prices rose again and lithium prices reached a new high
Iron ore prices picked up and inventories fell
Midstream
The acceleration of downstream construction drives the rise of steel prices
The performance of power equipment and new energy is weak, and wind power is expected to be repaired
The demand starts slowly and the cement price drops
The downstream has resumed work one after another, and chemical products have mixed ups and downs
In February, the revenue of express business increased year-on-year, and the freight rate of centralized transportation continued to fall
Downstream
Many places have successively issued real estate relaxation policies
In March, the air conditioning production data increased slightly year-on-year, and the export performance remained strong
Policy shocks exacerbate the volatility of Baijiu sector, mass goods cost end pressure
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Electronics: the prosperity of sub sectors is divided, and the semiconductor supply is impacted
Computer: the popularity of the concept of digital economy is rising again, and the industrial policy is expected to accelerate the implementation
Media: the four departments jointly issued the key points for improving the digital literacy and skills of the whole people in 2022
Risk tips: macroeconomic failure to meet the expected risk, monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, certificate risk and bond risk research, research, supervision, reporting and reporting policy exceeding the expected risk, industry prosperity failure to meet the expected risk and stagflation risk
