Daily panoramic analysis report of macro market

1. This year, the central bank handed over the balance profits to the central government in accordance with the law, with a total amount of more than 1 trillion yuan, which is mainly used to offset tax rebates and increase transfer payments to local governments, support enterprise relief, stabilize employment and ensure people's livelihood. The central bank said that the balance profit mainly comes from the operating income of foreign exchange reserves in the past few years, which will not increase the burden of taxes or economic entities, nor is it a fiscal deficit. Turning over the balance profits to the central finance according to law will not cause the finance to overdraw from the central bank. The balance profits were handed over in a balanced manner on a monthly basis, and the scale of the central bank's balance sheet remained stable, reflecting the coordination and linkage of monetary and fiscal policies and making joint efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market.

2. On March 8, affected by the rising prices of bulk commodities in the European and American markets, China's bulk commodity futures showed a large-scale follow-up market. The crude oil system lifted the limit tide, jinyinqi reached a new high, and nickel, aluminum and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) rose one after another. Market participants believe that investors should avoid or hedge against the uncertainty of the geographical situation. We should be vigilant against the rising market of warehouse squeeze under the expectation of global supply disturbance, and pay attention to fund management and risk control.

3. The central bank said that the macro leverage ratio, as the warning line of medium-term economic cycle changes, remains basically stable at present, which can reflect the gradual convergence of China's financial risks and provide policy space for increasing cross cycle regulation in the future. The leverage ratio was 272.5% in 2021, returning to a basically stable track. It is expected that the growth rate will remain basically stable in 2022, creating policy space for the financial system to continue to increase its support for the real economy in the future.

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