Key points:
Market review: the brokerage index fell 4.8% in the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.4pct
In the past two weeks (2.21-3.4), the Shanghai index fell 1.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.3%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 3.3% and the gem index fell 2.8%. Non bank finance (Shenwan) fell 5.4%, ranking 24 / 28 in terms of rise and fall, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.1 percentage points; Among them, the brokerage index fell 4.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.4 percentage points.
The top five securities companies were: Polaris Bay Group Co.Ltd(600155) (+ 2.2%), Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) (+ 1.6%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (+ 0.8%), Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) (- 1.3%), The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) (- 2.2%).
The securities companies with the last five increases are: Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) (- 7.7%), Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (- 7.8%), Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (- 8.1%), Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) (- 8.8%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (- 9.6%).
Industry weekly data: daily average stock based transactions remained above trillion, and the balance of two financial institutions rebounded slightly
Brokerage business: last week (2.28-3.4), the daily average stock base turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1042.5 billion yuan, down 8.8% month on month. Affected by the recent external emergencies, the average daily turnover of the market rose first and then fell, and remained above trillion on the whole.
Investment banking: last week (2.28-3.4), the scale of equity financing was 20.7 billion yuan (mom + 52%); The IPO Financing scale was 4.5 billion yuan (mom + 48%), and the refinancing scale was 16.2 billion yuan (mom + 53%). In terms of the number of companies, a total of 12 companies conducted equity financing last week, including 4 IPO and 8 refinancing.
Capital intermediary business: as of last Friday (March 4), the balance of margin trading and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 173.3 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.3%; The balance of two financial institutions accounted for 2.5% of the total circulating market value of a shares, and the proportion rebounded slightly.
Industry highlights: the full implementation of the registration system is expected to speed up the implementation
(1) China Securities Association releases the operating data of securities companies in 2021. In 2021, 140 securities companies in the whole industry achieved an operating revenue of 502.4 billion yuan (year-on-year + 12%) and a net profit of 191.1 billion yuan (year-on-year + 21%). The net income from agency sales of financial products was 20.69 billion yuan (year-on-year + 54%), accounting for 13.39% of the brokerage income, an increase of 3.02 percentage points.
(2) on March 5, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in his government work report that “we will fully implement the stock issuance registration system and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market”. This is another reference to the “full implementation of the stock issuance registration system” since the central economic work conference in December last year and the work conference of the CSRC at the beginning of this year. In addition, by combing the previous government work reports, we can find that the reform of the registration system has progressed steadily from the establishment and pilot registration system of the science and innovation board in 2019 to the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange in 2021. The government work report mentioned the full implementation of the registration system for the first time, so we expect that the reform of the full registration system will be accelerated.
Investment advice
In terms of policies, the economic growth target in 2022 reflects the determination to stabilize growth. It is expected that the implementation of the stable growth policy will be accelerated in the future, the monetary policy will have more room to play, and the liquidity will be sufficient to support market transactions. The implementation of the comprehensive registration system is expected to accelerate and the prosperity of the securities industry is improving. At present, the valuation of Pb in the securities industry is only 1.5x, which is in the 17% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years. The safety margin of the sector is high and the allocation value is prominent. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management and maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk; The risk of sharp decline in the secondary market; Industry competition intensifies risks, etc.
