Core conclusion
Automobile lightweight is an important technical path for energy conservation and emission reduction. The integrated die casting of chassis and body structure has a wide space. The purpose of lightweight is to reduce the servicing weight without sacrificing the performance indexes such as reliability. It is a systematic engineering with comprehensive safety, mechanical properties and economy. Energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0 sets the goal of reducing the lightweight coefficient of fuel / pure electric passenger vehicles by 25% / 35% in 2035. Lightweight improves the fuel consumption performance of fuel vehicles, increases the range of electric vehicles, and effectively alleviates the bottleneck problem of the range of pure electric vehicles. As an important part of vehicle lightweight, the body + chassis structure has a clear lightweight trend and broad space.
New forces are in full swing, and traditional brands are following up one after another. Tesla Model y first launched the integrated die-casting rear base sector in 2021, reducing more than 70 parts to 2. Compared with the traditional stamping and welding process, Tesla Model y has strong advantages in cost economy, process flow, production beat and material utilization, and plans to expand to the front base sector, front wall module and even middle base sector. New forces Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and Gaohe followed up one after another. Traditional brands Volvo and Mercedes Benz also said they would promote the transformation of integrated die-casting plant and the launch of integrated structural parts. With the guidance of new forces and the follow-up of independent / joint ventures, the market will undergo two marginal changes simultaneously: 1) the increase of volume. We predict that the penetration rate of integrated die casting will exceed 10% in 2025 and 30% in 2030. 2) With the increase of price, we expect that in 2025, the integrated die-casting parts of single vehicle will include rear bottom sector, front bottom sector, middle bottom sector, battery tray and other parts, with the value of single vehicle of 6 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 0 yuan. We predict that the market scale of integrated die casting may reach 13.5 billion yuan in 2025, the market scale is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2030, and the CAGR will reach 83% from 2021 to 2030.
Equipment + mold + material + process, create high-tech barriers, and the layout of “leaders” in the industry is comprehensive. We believe that most OEMs will not adopt Tesla‘s self supply scheme, but prefer the scheme of third-party supply, so the leader of third-party suppliers will usher in a new opportunity. With the increase of the tonnage of die casting equipment, the maturity of the precision vacuum technology of large molds and the patent landing of heat-free alloy materials, large precision die casting has gradually built a multiple moat of technology, capital and customer resources. High pressure die casting has formed a high technical barrier, especially in equipment + mold + material + process. Industry leaders such as Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) are fully distributed and seize the opportunity. It is expected to expand downstream customers of integrated die casting, start the process of improving yield in small batches and realize mass production.
Investment suggestion: the leading enterprises with comprehensive layout of the industrial chain will seize the opportunity in the field of integrated die casting, carry out the process of improving the yield of small batch and realize mass production. We are optimistic about the growth space of integrated die casting and suggest paying attention to leading enterprises such as Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) ( Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) . SZ), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ( Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) . SH), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ( Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) . SH) with advantages in mold, equipment, materials and technology. Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) has advantages in terms of revenue volume of aluminum die casting; Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) has advantages in gross profit margin and net profit margin; Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) has advantages in mass production progress and customer expansion, and is expected to take the lead in mass production.
Risk warning: the order of integrated die casting is not as expected; The sales volume of new force models is lower than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials such as aluminum price; Exchange rate change risk
