In different development periods, production capacity, channel, brand and management have become the main elements of consumer goods competition. The specific focus is to expand production capacity, expand channels and brand. Specifically, under the background of the era of consumer sovereignty, the key to competition lies in the grasp of consumers and the education of users. In the process of communicating with the market, we found that it is easy to ignore the efforts of enterprises in user education, thus weakening the stickiness of brands in the hearts of consumers, resulting in the underestimation of many high-quality brand targets.
Taking the secondary and regional Baijiu as an example, during the process of organizing the investigation, we find that the investors’ main concerns are in the profit of a single product channel, whether the dealers are willing to sell, whether the terminal is willing to push, ignoring the efforts made by the enterprises in brand promotion and terminal consumer education. We believe that the overall sales volume of dealers is the key to consider. When the profit of a single bottle decreases, dealers are really unwilling to take the initiative to recommend. The scale can make up for the phenomenon of small profits, while consumers can reduce a lot of recommendation activities, so they no longer make fast money, but have deterministic and stable income. This can better explain that although the profits of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Guoyuan four open channels have narrowed, the momentum is still strong, and the dynamic sales are significantly higher than expected.
Take high-end Baijiu as an example, the market emphasizes the channel thrust rather than the brand stickiness. Baijiu brand is a relatively solid consumer. The purchase of terminal stores has a clear preference for brands and products. Most of the consumption of high-end liquor is self – directed, rather than the recommendation of cigarette and liquor vendor owners. The fundamental reason is that high-end consumer scenarios have rigid demand for brand licensing. The attitude and enthusiasm of channel dealers affect the market sentiment more, but they can’t change the choice of consumers. The market’s expectation of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has been low, but the driven sales are still stable and high growth.
Weak prosperity and increased fluctuations in peripheral markets lead to large fluctuations in investment sentiment in the sector. At this time, very one-sided negative information can affect the trend and control the market. At this time, it is easy to have poor expectations, which is rooted in the unique competitive logic of consumer goods. We believe that when the mood is bleak, the analysis of the core competitive elements of the enterprise and the research on the grasp of the brand consumer can bring excess returns.
Investment strategy, the recent changes in the external environment is beyond expectations, but we believe that the scene repair logic is still established. At this time, under the pessimistic mood, many “track shares” callbacks have more cost-effective, and are different from previous views. We no longer emphasize the regional Baijiu investment opportunities, and think that the current Baijiu good targets are cost-effective. This is the time to return to the core competitive elements of the industry, look for the core competitive elements of the industry, look for the targets that have good fundamentals but have a big fall in valuation, and focus on the ones that have good fundamentals but have a good underlying performance but have a big drop in valuation, and highlight the recommendations of 603 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) etc. in terms of mass products, the recent rise of raw materials exceeded expectations, However, in the long run, the logic of “price increase and cost reduction” is still tenable, focusing on beer, condiments, quick freezing and other tracks, such as Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , etc.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic may be repeated; Demand recovery is not strong enough; Food safety issues, etc
