Key investment points:
Electricity prices have entered a rising cycle, significantly improving the business performance of green power operation
At the beginning of 2022, there was a rare upside down phenomenon in the coal price outside China. At present, it is at the balance point of carbon reduction and supply guarantee. The China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal price has strong support from many factors. At the same time, China’s power demand will remain strong in 2022, with an expected year-on-year increase of 5-6%. In particular, the continuous expansion of green power demand supports the rise of transaction price. The electricity price in Jiangsu Province has risen by nearly 20% in four months. According to our calculation, at present, the vast majority of thermal power enterprises are in the micro loss range, the electricity price has entered the rising cycle, and the income end of new energy operators has growth.
The new infrastructure represented by green power is the main investment direction in 2022, with prominent growth attributes
The two sessions clearly proposed to promote the construction of large-scale scenery bases. Under the background of steady growth, social finance increased significantly in January, and new energy, as an important direction of new infrastructure, received financial support. The financing cost of new energy decreased: the central bank launched the carbon emission reduction support tool in November 2021, which is supported by 60% of the loan principal and 1.75% of the one-year interest rate. At present, it has been implemented. Continuous optimization of the cost side of supply release promotion: the silicon production capacity is released one after another, the large-scale wind power continues to be promoted, the superposition of various links actively expand production, the supply tension is alleviated, the profits of the industrial chain will be transmitted to the downstream, the costs of photovoltaic and wind power will be reduced, and the cost side of operators will be continuously optimized.
Green power operators are the best choice for the current market style
Since the beginning of 2022, under the expectation of strong interest rate increase, the NASDAQ has fallen, and the new energy track labeled with growth style has made a significant correction. The average cumulative decline of photovoltaic and lithium battery industries in 2022 is 8.76% and 12.25%. The average position of Q4 fund of green power operators in 2021 is only 1.96%, or the preferred direction under the balanced style.
Recommended object:
China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) : accelerate the transformation to an integrated green power operator
We expect that by the end of 2025, the company’s installed capacity of nuclear power / new energy is expected to reach 26 / 30GW, the comprehensive green power operation attribute will become more prominent, and the stock of nuclear power units will benefit from the upward trading price. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 63.39/79.86/85.85 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.09/107.9/11.83 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE of 17.3/13.0/11.9 times. We give the company a “buy” rating of 18 times PE in 22 years and a target price of 10.8 yuan.
Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) : leading enterprise of photovoltaic operation and maintenance
We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.859/8.166/10.602 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.540/20.13/2.743 billion yuan respectively, the EPS will be 0.51/0.67/0.91 yuan / share respectively, the three-year CAGR will be 38.84%, and the corresponding PE will be 19.4x/14.8x/10.9x respectively. According to the valuation of comparable companies, we give the company 19 times PE in 22 years, with a target price of 12.73 yuan and a “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
Great changes have taken place in the new energy policy; The reform of electricity market-oriented trading was less than expected.
