\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 100 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) )
The performance in 2021 was in line with expectations: the annual revenue increased by 19% year-on-year and the net profit increased by 20% year-on-year
In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 9.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 19%, net profit of about 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%, deduction of non net profit of about 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 17%, and the performance was in line with expectations. Q4 in 2021 achieved revenue of about 2.1 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 16%; The net profit was 710 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%; The deduction of non net profit was about 640 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%.
In 2021, the net interest rate increased by 0.15pct year-on-year, mainly due to the continuous improvement of product structure and operation management
In 2021, the annual net interest rate was 28.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.15pct; Q4 single quarter net interest rate was 33%, with a year-on-year and month on month increase of 2.4pct and 3.8pct respectively. The company overcame the impact of adverse factors such as the rise in the price of raw materials, the decline of downstream prosperity and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, and achieved a continuous increase in net interest rate through the improvement of product structure and operation management. Q4 net profit margin increased significantly, mainly due to the improvement of product structure, the addition and deduction of R & D expenses and the increase of government subsidies.
The main drivers of revenue growth in 2021 are: the revenue of pump and valve increases by 38%, and the revenue of non-standard oil cylinder increases by 24%
1) in 2021, the sales volume of the excavator industry increased by 4.6% year-on-year, and the revenue of the company’s Excavator cylinder products increased by 12% year-on-year, higher than the growth of downstream industries, and the market share of excavator cylinder continued to increase;
2) non standard oil cylinder: high-altitude operation platform, shield machine and marine equipment maintained high growth, and new customers in military industry, new energy and other new fields were opened up. The product revenue of non-standard oil cylinder increased by 24% year-on-year;
3) hydraulic pump and valve: with the release of new production capacity, the market share of Zhongda digging pump and valve has increased rapidly. It is expected that the market share of Zhongda digging pump and valve will increase 6pct, and the revenue of pump and valve products will increase by 38% year-on-year.
The proposed production capacity will move towards high-end, electrification and globalization in an all-round way; It will start again after adjustment in 2022
The company announced that it plans to increase no more than 5 billion yuan for projects such as Hengli Mexico (1.1 billion), linear driver (1.4 billion), technical transformation of general hydraulic pump (290 million), super heavy oil cylinder (140 million), and the product layout will move towards high-end, globalization and electrification. 2022 is the year of adjustment of the company. It is expected that after the raised investment project is put into operation, the production capacity of the company’s general pump valve, non-standard oil cylinder, electric cylinder and overseas market will increase significantly and enter the growth channel again.
Clear growth path: domestic substitution + category expansion + electrification + globalization, which is expected to become a global leader
Growth path: 1) domestic substitution and increase the market share of stock products; 2) From excavator industry to non excavator construction machinery industry; 3) Expand from construction machinery industry to general field; 4) Product category expansion, pump valve motor copying the growth path of oil cylinder; 5) Technology upgrading through electrification; 6) There is more room for globalization to grow.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 9.3/98/11.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19% / 5% / 15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.7/28/33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% / 5% / 16%, corresponding to pe27 / 26 / 23 times. Maintain buy rating.
Risk tip: real estate infrastructure investment declines; The price of raw materials rose more than expected;
