\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Matters:
Announcement of the company: during the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales momentum of the company’s products is good, the market is booming, and the company has successfully achieved a “good start”. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
Guoxin Food & Beverage view: 1) since the beginning of the year, Maotai liquor supply and marketing have been booming, and the performance in the first quarter is highly deterministic; 2) The market-oriented reform has been promoted rapidly, and the fundamentals have improved; 3) The long-term value is still outstanding, and the performance is expected to continue to grow steadily; 4) Investment suggestion: the current valuation has a strong cost performance, and we will continue to firmly recommend it. Under the background of the continuous upgrading of external consumption and the continuous boom of high-end wine, as well as the support of the new internal management and the steady progress of market-oriented reform, the growth and certainty of the company’s medium and long-term performance are still strong. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 52 / 613 / 70.8 billion yuan, the diluted EPS will be 41.39/48.77/56.38 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 41 / 35 / 30x, firmly maintaining the “buy” rating.
Comments:
Since the beginning of the year, the supply and marketing of Maotai liquor have been booming, and the performance in the first quarter is highly deterministic
Combined with channel feedback, Maotai’s terminal demand has continued to be strong since the beginning of the year, the price has been basically stable, and the mobile sales have remained stable. We expect that the proportion of dealers’ annual payment collection and delivery during the Spring Festival will be about 25%, laying a basic guarantee for the performance of the first quarter. At the same time, since the beginning of the year, the company has released a number of high-priced new products such as Maotai, the year of the tiger zodiac and Maotai 1935, which have received good market feedback and contributed to some performance increments. Maotai 1935, as a new product with a price of 1000 yuan for the public, has an ex factory price of 798 yuan and a recommended retail price of 1188 yuan. It has benefited from the strong demand for tasting and tasting. The recent approval price is basically about 1 Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) 0 yuan. In the future, it is expected to gradually turn to the public demand and increase the volume. We expect that the market volume this year will be about 2000 tons.
The market-oriented reform is advancing rapidly, and the fundamentals are improving
After chairman Ding took office in August last year, marketing system, price system and other market-oriented and digital reform measures were gradually implemented (including Feitian incremental launch, cancellation of unpacking policy, increase of delivery through direct channels, promotion of new prices of non-standard liquor and series liquor, etc.). In February this year, the company proposed the “five in one marketing method” of resource integration, digital integration, cultural integration, brand aggregation and combination of management and service. It positioned 2022 as the “year of reform”, vigorously promoted the breakthrough of marketing reform and released a strong positive signal. Under a series of measures, the price of Maotai liquor has remained stable (at present, the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottles and whole boxes is about 2750 / 3150 yuan / bottle), and the business fundamentals have been gradually improved. The company has great room for market-oriented reform, and the reform dividend is expected to be released gradually in the future.
The long-term value is still outstanding, and the performance is expected to continue to grow steadily
From the perspective of volume and price, multiple factors such as sufficient capacity + product structure optimization + marketing channel optimization ensure the continuous and steady growth of the company’s performance. On the one hand, in 2022, we will benefit from the sufficient base liquor of Maotai liquor and the release of production capacity of a series of liquor, and the volume increase is expected to accelerate. We estimate that about 40000 tons of Maotai liquor can be sold in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 10-15%; On the other hand, the increase in the proportion of direct selling and the large-scale price increase of non-standard liquor and series of liquor drive the rise of ton price and the increase of profit growth. The extremely thick channel profit safety cushion and potential price increase may also give higher performance flexibility.
Investment advice: the current valuation has a strong cost performance, continue to firmly recommend and maintain the “buy” rating
Under the background of the continuous upgrading of external consumption and the continuous boom of high-end wine, as well as the support of the new internal management and the steady progress of market-oriented reform, we believe that the growth and certainty of the company’s medium and long-term performance are still strong. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 52 / 613 / 70.8 billion yuan, the diluted EPS will be 41.39/48.77/56.38 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 41 / 35 / 30x, firmly maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of large-scale recurrence of the epidemic, and the risk that the demand for high-end wine is lower than expected.
