\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Core view
The company released the February production and sales express: in February, the company’s total sales volume was 71000, down 20.5% year-on-year and 36.7% month on month. Among them, the sales volume of Haval brand was 42000, down 31.2% year-on-year and 40.2% month on month. The sales volume of wey brand was 4432, with a year-on-year increase of 103.1% and a month on month decrease of 13.1%. The sales volume of Great Wall pickup trucks was 12000, down 23.1% year-on-year and 9.5% month on month. The sales volume of Euler brand was 6261, down 15.1% year-on-year and 52.7% month on month. The sales volume of tank brand was 6468, with a year-on-year increase of 96.0% and a month on month decrease of 37.6%.
Insufficient ESP supply affected the company’s production and sales in February: the main factor for the year-on-year decline in the company’s sales in February was the insufficient ESP supply. Bosch is the exclusive supplier of ESP configuration for the company’s main model. The company is actively promoting Bosch group headquarters and chip suppliers to jointly formulate output improvement plans, and strive to quickly solve the supply problem. It is expected that the company’s production and sales are expected to resume positive year-on-year growth in March. At present, the limited material supply of the company tends to give products with high gross profit margin. In 2022, Euler, wey and tank brands will be the new year of products. Harvard and pickup truck will also continue to maintain their leading positions in the market segments. Higher sales will better amortize costs and expenses and improve the profitability of the company.
Optimize the product structure and increase the proportion of high-end models: from January to February, the cumulative sales proportion of models with more than 150000 yuan increased to 15.5%, and the pace of high-end products was accelerated. The proportion of models equipped with L2 and above increased to 88.1%, and the intelligence improved significantly. After the problem of subsequent material supply is solved, the sales volume of the company’s wey, tank, Euler and other models is expected to climb rapidly to enhance the company’s core competitiveness.
Investment suggestion: the company’s strong product cycle has come. China’s multi brand covers the high, medium and low-end markets of fuel and electric. In 2022, with the alleviation of chip shortage, the company will release greater performance flexibility. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.73 yuan, 1.11 yuan and 1.43 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 40.5, 26.7 and 20.7 respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the sales of new products are not as expected; The development progress of overseas market is less than expected.
