Investment in A-Shares is unusual. Can fund managers make good performance?
This year's performance of Han Chuang, a fund manager who is in the limelight and deeply loved by Jimin, has obviously answered this question. According to the data, as of December 29, the yield of Dacheng state-owned enterprise reform fund, Dacheng cutting-edge industry fund and Dacheng Ruijing flexible fund managed by him has reached 91.22%, 85.14% and 81.21% respectively this year, ranking fourth, sixth and seventh in the whole market.
However, unlike most fund managers at the forefront of the market this year, Hanchuang's heavy position stocks have hardly set foot in the hottest sector of the market - new energy. Han Chuang is very calm about this. He believes that the sense of security of investment is not determined by whether the investment is lonely or in a group. The core lies in a deep understanding of the value of individual stocks. He bluntly said that this year, including the past few years, the importance of selecting the industry is greater. Of course, there are some deep-seated factors, but the overall result is that making profits in some stocks does not necessarily benefit from the accuracy of stock selection. It is likely that it is just because the whole industry is rising. In 2022, the difference of risk return ratio between different sectors will not be so great, so the importance of stock selection will increase significantly.
what will be the result of not buying new energy this year?
Among the top 10 funds and even the top 30 funds in the whole market, this year has been characterized by the fact that 90% of fund managers get high returns from heavy positions in new energy.
in this context, Han Chuang's investment style can be called an alternative. Although two of the three funds he manages have entered the list of the top ten funds in the whole market, among which the yield of Dacheng state-owned enterprise reform fund has reached 91.22% (as of December 29, 2021), ranking fourth in the whole market, and the other two funds he manages have also entered the top ten in the whole country. However, the Chinese reporter of the securities times securities firm observed the three funds and found that there was almost no new energy in Han Chuang's core position.
Previously, some fund leaders said frankly that there are many ways for fund managers to be lazy. Following the mainstream layout is a lazy way for many mediocre people to obtain average market returns. While mainstream funds buy new energy, Han Chuang's unusual investment strategy actually means that he will give up lying flat and bear the "sense of insecurity" caused by the large contrast with the mainstream strategy.
"The security of investment is not determined by whether you are lonely or in a group. Sometimes it is the most dangerous to be in a group." Han Chong told a Chinese journalist in an exclusive interview with China securities company that the early days when everyone was holding Baijiu and medicine, it turned out to be the most dangerous. If the fund manager believed in his own stock selection direction, he thought he had no problem in the investment framework. His historical achievements also showed that he could get a good return in this framework, and at the same time he could control the risk. It has been a good result.
When other fund managers rely on new energy to obtain high returns, what does Han Chuang, who takes an unusual path, rely on to obtain such high returns at the same level, get rid of the performance of many new energy fund managers, and enter the top six in the whole market?
According to the disclosure in the third quarterly report of the fund, as of the end of the reporting period, the top ten stocks of Dacheng state-owned enterprise reform fund managed by Han Chuang were Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) etc. in terms of industry distribution, these heavy positions actually have low industry correlation with each other, that is to say, there is no heavy position of new energy, Even new energy stocks are not reflected in Han Chuang's list of top ten stocks, and their heavy positions are extremely balanced in the industry distribution.
after making a lot of money in stocks, don't think it's too bull to choose stocks
Han Chuang bluntly told the Chinese reporter of the securities firm that some investors, including him, tend to be full of confidence when initially managing the portfolio and obtaining better returns. They always think that they make money by selecting individual stocks. In fact, at some stages of the market, making money is likely to only obtain the beta of the industry track, which will deceive investors by the highlight moment of the market track.
"Because the whole track is rising and everyone who buys it will make people feel that it seems to be their stock selection ability, but it's not." Han Chuang believes that in order to avoid such problems, it is necessary to strengthen the analysis ability of market status, industry prosperity and stock fundamentals, and determine whether it is the money of track valuation premium brought by high industry prosperity or the money of individual stock profit growth.
This is also a factor that Han Chuang did not participate in the new energy track this year. He believes that his landscape, good company and valuation measurement are more suitable for his own style. At the same time, there are some problems in the valuation of the new energy track this year.
"The new energy industry is a long-term direction, but now this' super track 'also gathers more investors. The transactions are crowded. In the excitement of chasing high prosperity, investors may ignore the factors that should be paid attention to." According to Han Chuang's analysis, first, the reason for the continuous rise of new energy this year is that the market pursues high scenery, but the premise of pursuing scenery is that the prosperity needs to be accelerated. For example, the industry grows by 10% this year, 20% next year and 30% the next year, but there are few industries with non-linear growth. Second, the share prices of some companies have not been adjusted and have been rising. If they do not match the good competition pattern, it will not be sustainable. But overall, it is not easy to judge when the industry will reverse. Of course, Han Chuang believes that future market adjustment will bring better position building opportunities to the new energy sector.
if you can catch a fluctuating Bull Stock?
It is noteworthy that the Dacheng state-owned enterprise reform, Dacheng cutting-edge industry and Dacheng Ruijing flexible funds managed by Hanchuang have entered the list of the top four and top ten in the whole market performance, largely thanks to Hanchuang's ability to calm the underground network and close the network in terms of individual stock layout.
It is obvious that many investors and even fund managers often face the problem in the A-share market that many people have been scared away when a bull stock earns only 30% and 50%. When investors are complacent about 50% of short-term profits, the stocks sold may achieve more amazing returns later. In this regard, Han Chuang admitted that his current high-yield is actually a summary of past gains and losses.
The fund managed by Hanchuang bought a technology giant in the fourth quarter of 2019. At that time, the technology giant had only a market value of about 160 billion. During the first quarter of 2020, the company's share price nearly doubled, with a market value of more than 300 billion and a valuation of nearly 50-60 times. The rapid rise in valuation brought some troubles to Hanchuang. Therefore, after Hanchuang obtained large profits, Slowly sold the target company, and after selling, the company's share price ushered in a new round of rise.
This is a reflection for Han Chuang: "should we sell a stock in the short run or not?" in fact, it is advisable to sell at any time if the stock has a clear bubble, but sometimes a high valuation is not necessarily a bubble. We should pay more attention to whether its future can be digested by continuous development. This reflection helped Hanchuang cope with the sharp rise of stocks more calmly.
"It is really a technical job for fund managers to determine the buying and selling points of a good stock." Han Chuang told Chinese reporters of securities companies that he attaches great importance to risk control and will buy the target company only when the safety margin is large enough. In terms of selling points, the significance of individual stocks falling by 20% and 50% is different. A 20% drop may only be a market fluctuation, which is acceptable. At this time, if you have great confidence in the target company, you should not sell in a hurry.
At the same time, when selling the target company, we should consider two aspects: Valuation and performance. Han Chuang believes that when the target company's bubble is very obvious, it will choose to sell. When the valuation of the target company is high, but the subsequent performance growth can digest the valuation, it will not be sold immediately. In terms of performance, when the performance of the target company breaks out in a short time, it is judged that the future probability can be maintained and will not be sold immediately. This is consistent with the right side operation idea of fund managers. The subject matter of buying and buying stocks is on the right side.
stock selection hopes to shorten the waiting time of stock price
In the investment framework, Hanchuang considers a lot of investment elements. In fact, Hanchuang considers the long, medium and short-term performance of fund performance.
"Investors who buy my fund not only have long-term investors, but also investors who may only want to take a relatively short time." Han Chuang said in an interview that he is a fund manager who will comprehensively consider short, medium and long-term performance, and the requirements for industry prosperity in his investment framework are considered from the time dimension of two or three years.
In addition, Han Chuang believes that although as a fund manager, he should give a longer shareholding mentality to the heavy position stocks he buys and explore the long-term investment value of the stocks, it is unlikely to buy stocks that may improve their fundamentals and stock prices only eight or nine months or even a year later in the actual investment process.
Therefore, Han Chuang's heavy position in the stock is to explore the short, medium and long-term potential of the stock price as much as possible after considering multiple factors.
"There are many factors affecting stock price, including industry prosperity, company performance, internal management, etc., but industry prosperity is the most effective factor." Han Chuang believes that the A-share market and overseas markets show the same characteristics, that is, the response of the stock price to the prosperity is very obvious. If the prosperity of the industry is going up, the company's stock price will respond quickly. If the prosperity keeps going down, it is possible that the stock price will not respond no matter how excellent the company is. If the industry prosperity can persist within 2-3 years, the profit-making effect is relatively strong. Therefore, considering the industry prosperity will greatly shorten the waiting time of investors.
generally speaking, Hanchuang's investment framework mainly includes three logics: the first is the prosperity of the industry, the second is the company's competitive advantage, and the third is reasonable valuation, combining long-term and short-term investment. Prosperity, company advantages and valuation are indispensable. Although Hanchuang also pays attention to the prosperity of the industry, it is different from track investors. Compared with track investors who only pay attention to high scenery and will insist on buying when the valuation is very high, Han Chuang believes that valuation protection is the key point that must be paid attention to. Without the support of fundamentals and valuation, simple boom investment will not become the logic of heavy position buying.
Under the framework of stock selection, stock selection sometimes faces some problems. Han Chuang believes that the stocks bought often rise too much in a certain period of time, and the valuation exceeds an expected range. At this time, some adjustments may also be needed. Another point is that under the guidance of prosperity investment, it can indeed bring bright returns to the fund, but this process needs to continuously compare the prosperity and risk return ratio between different industries.
the style of A-share market will be more balanced next year
After the three funds under management have entered the forefront of the performance of the whole market, how does Hanchuang view the investment layout next year?
Han Chuang believes that in terms of the promising direction next year, the first key direction is the manufacturing industry. The manufacturing industry has the most obvious comparative advantage and will continue to explore this opportunity. At present, some stocks have been found. No matter how the market style will change, holding these companies will still get a relatively good return next year. The second focus is the dual carbon direction, which covers a wide range, including the power grid investment direction being deduced and some high energy consuming industries. Although there has been a large pullback due to the impact of policy reversal after October, there is a partial cyclical growth direction, which is worthy of attention. After a round of correction, many stocks have low implied expectations. As long as the price center does not decline next year, these stocks should still have a chance. The third direction is wealth management, which is the general trend. Other financial stocks will also be allocated. Generally speaking, positions are allocated after in-depth research from the medium and micro perspective, rather than based on the macro.
At the same time, compared with the extreme market of A-Shares this year, he believes that the market style will be more balanced next year. On the one hand, the valuation of industries such as consumption has been corrected a lot. On the other hand, the market background and policy environment of next year are relatively favorable. In addition, if there is an obvious style change next year, there needs to be a relatively large policy background. For example, if there are obvious changes in the real estate policy, the introduction of some strong policies in order to stabilize the economy may promote the style change.
It is worth mentioning that Hanchuang may continue to tap "grey horse stocks" in the future.
He believes that grey horse shares are also the industry leader and have strong competitiveness in the industry, but the industry is relatively subdivided, so that everyone is not so familiar with relevant companies. Most of the gray horse stocks held by the funds under his management are mainly considered from the perspective of investment return. If the variety from gray horse to white horse can be caught, there will be performance growth and valuation improvement, and a higher investment return will be obtained.
(brokerage China)
