The “cross year market” at the level of A-share market index has not been launched yet, and the structural strength pattern of large consumption plate is still rotating.
According to the latest strategic research and judgment views from a number of front-line private placement, although there has been a considerable increase in several segments of large consumption since December, most institutions are still optimistic about the performance of large consumption before and after new year’s day and before the Spring Festival.
Key words such as consumption upgrading, domestic trend, essential consumption, household appliances, low and medium price to book ratio have become the focus of many private placement in the direction of large consumption segmentation.
home appliance sector won the “top increase”
In the context of the continuous “contraction shock plot” in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, individual stocks in the market have continued the differentiation pattern since this week, while multiple consumer sectors have continued the “excess alpha” performance of the relative market.
Data show that as of the closing on December 28, two of the top ten industry sectors in the two cities came from the consumer industry. Among them, the home appliance sector index (880387) rose 2.75%, ranking first in the list.
In addition, according to the China Securities Taurus data, as of the closing on the 28th, since December, the indexes of consumer industries such as wine making, household goods, media and entertainment, hotels and catering have increased by about 10%, and the monthly increase is significantly higher than the main stock indexes such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Composite Index.
there is a strong atmosphere of long before the Spring Festival
Recently, A-Shares have been generally volatile, but the consumer sector is relatively strong. Liu Tianjun, general manager of Taimin assets, believes that there are many reasons. First, this year’s social zero growth data is relatively sluggish. As an important support for the economy, consumption is expected to introduce more stimulus policies in the future; Second, from a fundamental point of view, despite the repeated impact of the epidemic, some leading companies still showed strong pressure resistance and achieved steady performance growth; Third, from the perspective of capital, towards the end of the year, previously suppressed consumer stocks have become the first choice for some funds, which has also promoted the strength of the consumer sector to a certain extent.
For the “time point effect” at the end of the year, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, believes that with the approaching of the new year’s Day holiday, market transactions gradually tend to be light and show significant risk aversion. The low-end stocks represented by consumption have been obviously favored by hedge funds recently.
Bao Xiaohui, chairman of Changli assets, said that before and after the Spring Festival, business banquets, family and friends meetings and new year goods preparation at the family level have themselves concentrated on increasing the demand for many consumer goods. It is reasonable that there is a strong seasonal trend in the traditional consumption sector.
Looking forward to the performance of the large consumption sector around New Year’s day and before the Spring Festival, most private institutions are still “looking more and doing more”.
The chief investment official Lei of Xingshi investment believes that the logic that the “spring restless market” may be brewing in the A-share market has not changed, and the large consumption sector is expected to continue to have good investment opportunities. From top to bottom, the overall prosperity of the large consumer industry is marginally recovering, and there may be individual stocks with significantly stronger fundamentals and reasonable valuation in the subdivided industries.
Liu Tianjun said that looking forward to the market performance before the Spring Festival, Taimin assets remains optimistic about the large consumption sector. This year’s Spring Festival is about 10 days earlier than last year. Manufacturers will appropriately move forward the time node when preparing goods for the Spring Festival. The “dynamic sales feedback” of the consumer market may also bring more catalysts to a shares.
Nuggets these dimensions
In terms of specific structural opportunities and strategic responses in the field of large consumption in the short and medium term, Bao Xiaohui said that recently, the rotation rhythm of the A-share plate is fast. In the future, it may have a higher probability to obtain benefits by actively arranging the consumer stock targets of “dynamic undervalued value and long-term expected high growth”. Changli assets focuses on leading enterprises in the field of necessary consumption in stock selection.
Liu Tianjun said that China has gradually become the world’s largest consumer market and is still firmly optimistic about investment opportunities in the field of large consumption. From the perspective of segmentation, the current three key dimensions are focused on: first, Baijiu and cosmetics, which are benefited from the upgrading of consumption. Second, sports apparel, automobile and other industries with clear domestic trend; Third, the food and condiment industries that have successively raised prices.
In the specific strategy of the large consumption sector before the Spring Festival, Xingshi investment suggests that investors need to “attack and keep”. For the stocks and industries that have increased greatly recently, “it needs to be cautious to catch up in the short term”. At this stage, we will pay more attention to “consumer assets with good supply and demand pattern and low price to book ratio”, “based on the long-term value of assets, from the price to book ratio, many consumer assets have higher cost performance.” Fang Lei said.
Zhao Yuanyuan said that in the environment of “downward interest rate continues to raise market risk preference”, it is also necessary to be vigilant about the possibility that the cycle and growth will replace the big consumption track and become the main line of market investment in the next stage. Therefore, in the large consumption sector, we are more optimistic about real estate related decoration, home appliances and some Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) industries.
(China Securities Journal)
