2021 is being regarded by more and more people as the first year of the "meta universe".
This year, the concept of meta universe became popular at the speed of light, and the market also began to dig gold in depth: how should we understand this popular industry still in the concept? What core businesses does the so-called belt yuan universe industrial chain include? Who is the number one company in these chains? Who is the most noteworthy core target?
The meta universe industrial chain has been basically formed, focusing on the terminal side and infrastructure side
"At present, the yuan universe industrial chain has basically taken shape." Open source securities analyst Fang Guangzhao pointed out in the research report that the meta universe industrial chain can be divided into seven levels or four plates.
Specifically, Fang Guangzhao pointed out that there are seven levels: one is the experience level, such as games, social networking, sports, movies, shopping, etc. The second is the discovery layer, such as advertising network, social networking, exhibition planning, mutual evaluation, stores, agents, etc. The third is the creator's economic layer, including design tools, asset market, workflow, commercial trade, etc. The fourth is the spatial computing layer, including 3D engine, VR / Ar / XR, multi task interface, geospatial mapping, etc.
"The fifth is the decentralization layer, including edge computing, AI agent, micro service, blockchain, etc. the sixth is the human-computer interaction layer, including portable smart glasses, wearable devices, gesture interaction, voice control interaction, interactive neural network, etc. the seventh is the infrastructure layer, such as 5g, WIPI 6.6g, cloud computing, 7mm / 11mm process, MEMS, graphics processing, basic materials, etc." Fang Guangzhao further pointed out.
If divided into four sections, Fang Guangzhao said, it can be divided into four aspects: hardware, software, service, application and content.
First, in terms of the content of the hardware section, it provides physical technologies and facilities for developing, interacting or using meta cosmic products. Such as network base station, server, VR glasses, etc.
In terms of software, it provides support and enabling for hardware. Realize physical calculation, rendering, data coordination, artificial intelligence and other functions.
The service section is used to provide a platform for carrying users' online identity, distribute connected digital content and digital assets, and support corresponding digital financial services.
In terms of application and content, it refers to providing products under terminal application scenarios such as medical treatment, education and games.
For the development path of meta universe, Ma Tianyi, chief analyst of Minsheng securities communication and meta universe, told surging journalists that there are four main aspects as a whole: first, the content side, mainly games. The second is the terminal side, such as the company that currently produces VR / AR equipment. The third is the platform side, such as meta (Facebook), NVIDIA and other companies. The fourth is the infrastructure side, that is, the production providers of servers, switches, optical modules and other infrastructure related to transmission and power supply.
"Among them, in the direction of investment logic, the current companies on the content side are more traditional Internet development models and cultivate user activity, so the possibility of short-term performance is relatively low. The opportunities on the terminal side and infrastructure side are relatively certain." Ma Tianyi said.
However, Ma Tianyi reminded investors that in the past two years, due to the impact of the epidemic, the valuation of many cloud service related companies has reached a historical high, so the valuation of these companies is currently in the digestion stage.
VR / AR industry may break out soon
In the meta universe industrial chain, the next development of VR / AR industry has been favored by many industry experts.
Fang Guangzhao pointed out that although the development of the industry is tepid after the "first year of VR", VR / AR, as an important part of the meta universe, is expected to usher in an inflection point of rapid growth.
"In 2018, with the exposure of technical and content problems, the VR industry that once stood in the tuyere once declined. After that, although it returned to the development track, the development of the whole industry has been tepid in recent years. There are three main reasons: first, the price factor. The high price is the main reason that prevents consumers from purchasing VR / AR equipment, and the VR head display price with good convenience The price is generally more than a few thousand yuan. Second, technical problems, dizziness still exists. Third, there is a lack of content market. From the perspective of the whole VR market, there is a lack of content products related to virtual reality, especially phenomenal masterpieces. The lack of content makes VR less attractive to users. " Fang Guangzhao pointed out.
However, Fang Guangzhao stressed that with the continuous enrichment of high-quality VR products in content application, a self-sufficient and profitable content ecology began to take shape. In terms of network platform, the popularity of 5g is expected to break the bottleneck of the niche of stand-alone VR. In addition, manufacturers have accelerated the layout of the meta universe and promoted the development of virtual reality at the technical and content ends. VR / AR, an important part of the meta universe, is expected to usher in a turning point of rapid growth.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities Research Report also believes that the VR / AR hardware industry chain is becoming more and more mature, the product experience is greatly improved, and the industry outbreak may be imminent.
In terms of VR, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities said that processor, storage and optical display devices accounted for more than 80% of VR hardware costs. Its Costar Group Co.Ltd(002189) display device technology is mature and will develop into the next generation short focus optical scheme in the future. Under the condition of fully meeting the use needs of consumers, the experience of relevant products has been significantly enhanced.
In terms of AR, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities pointed out that optical display accounted for 40% of the hardware cost. Optical mechanical design is a technical difficulty that AR equipment urgently needs to break through. At present, the industry mainly focuses on optical waveguide technology. Although the development and mass production of high-performance optical waveguides still need some time, it is expected that the admission of apple and other manufacturers will drive the rapid growth of the industrial chain.
Ma Tianyi also pointed out that at present, VR / AR, as a "bridge" linking reality and online virtual world, is evolving. For example, in the past, VR needed to link a high-performance computer to achieve good results, but now it has been relatively separated.
"It can be seen that many VR / AR manufacturing companies, compared with the previous manufacturing businesses such as mobile phones and on-board displays, have reduced the manufacturing technical difficulty of meta universe terminals. Therefore, the terminal supporting equipment products will be better in the future, and performance should be achieved in the next step." Ma Tianyi's judgment.
In terms of subject matter, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities recommends investors to pay attention to high-quality companies in the VR / AR industrial chain, such as Goertek Inc(002241) (002241), sunny optical technology (02382. HK), Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) (002273).
metauniverse brings long-term industrial logic to the game industry
In addition to VR / AR, the game industry is another investment main line favored by many institutions.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities pointed out that metauniverse is the long-term industrial logic of the media Internet industry in the future, and games are expected to become the first widely promoted application with its more comprehensive entertainment experience in various pan entertainment applications.
Specifically, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities said that large overseas companies represented by Facebook accelerated the layout of metauniverse. Among them, Facebook changed its name to "meta" and turned to the meta universe in an all-round way. Its goal is to cover 1 billion people and create hundreds of billions of digital economy in the next decade. At the same time, Microsoft and NVIDIA are also working on the meta universe.
"In China, byte beat previously acquired VR hardware Pico and launched the meta universe game restart the world, while Tencent proposed 'super digital scene' and invested in the meta universe game roblox." China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities further pointed out.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that a series of large factories outside China have significantly accelerated the layout of the meta universe, and the game sector has ushered in a long-term Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) logic.
In addition, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) pointed out that with the rapid growth of game revenue, the industry space is still large. Data show that in the first three quarters of this year, the revenue of Chinese games going to sea was US $4.064 billion, US $4.404 billion and US $4.966 billion respectively, with a growth rate of 28% in the third quarter.
Fang Guangzhao also pointed out that games, as the product form closest to the meta universe, especially MMORPG (large-scale multiplayer online role-playing game), are in line with the characteristics of the meta universe, such as stable economic system, strong virtual identity, strong sociality and immersive experience.
"With the trend of the open world and the continuous integration of UGC elements with MMORPG, MMORPG may be the first to breed the prototype of the meta universe like sandbox games. Manufacturers who have accumulated leading development experience and underlying logic in the field of MMORPG may take the lead in the exploration of meta universe games, such as Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (002624)." Fang Guangzhao pointed out.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities recommends investors to pay attention to Tencent (00700. HK), Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) (002555), G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) (603444), etc.
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(surging News)
