Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, near the end of the year, the market wait-and-see mood improved, the funds were waiting to seek new investment opportunities, and the market transactions fell slightly and remained in order. However, with the start of the monetary easing cycle, the overall good support and boost of the market are strengthened again. Sorting out or gaining momentum, bargain hunting is still a better time for additional allocation.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities opened differently, and the collective reaction of the group began to decline after the opening, and then continued to decline in the Baijiu plate. Since then, Chinese medicine stocks fell, Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) intraday limit, leading the index down again. On the whole, there is no obvious hot plate in the market, and the profit-making effect is weakened. On the disk, the national defense industry led the rise, while transportation, environmental protection, basic chemistry and steel performed well, while food and beverage led the decline, while public utilities, commercial trade and household appliances fell.
All day long, heavyweights have adjusted to drag down the index, while the Baijiu plate group fell down, driving the index continued to slump, coupled with the Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) trading limit, market confidence once declined. Forenoon, however, the trend is that the capital is flowing out of the Baijiu plate, and there are still some stocks for pharmaceutical stocks. For example, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) inflow in the morning was 1.096 billion yuan, but Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) net outflow was 1.190 billion yuan.
For the Baijiu plate, after the previous concentration and downlink, the current valuation is in a relatively reasonable interval. The industry has been raising prices continuously, and its performance has continued to improve. With the arrival of the Spring Festival consumption season, the industry as a whole may also be boosted. Besides the support of high-end Baijiu, the good elasticity of the second high-end is actually the focus of attention. For the pharmaceutical sector, especially traditional Chinese medicine, although Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) fell sharply, the valuation of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is at a relative bottom. Most traditional Chinese medicine enterprises have been at a trough in the past three years. The valuation has been lower than the overall valuation of biomedicine for a long time, and has medium-term allocation value.
Therefore, the lack of fear of Baijiu and medicine on the day is high and high valuation varieties. In the early period of monetary easing cycle, we should pay attention to the fall of valuation. On the whole, the current fundamentals are stable, the market liquidity remains good, and the overall support foundation remains the same. With the central bank’s RRR reduction and LPR reduction, the easing trend has begun, which is self-evident for the overall boost of the market.
Near the end of the year, the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the funds are also looking for new investment targets in the coming year, which are still repeated in the short term. However, the stock market is a barometer of currency. According to the historical cross year and market driving force, undervalued blue chips have stage investment value and can still be actively concerned in the recent adjustment.
To sum up: with the policy of steady growth, we continue to be optimistic about the market in the next year and the first quarter of next year. In this process, with the opening of the easing cycle, the overall recovery opportunity of undervalued blue chips deserves attention. In the short term, the market ushers in consolidation, but there is no substantive bad. Instead, consolidation is a good time to bargain hunting, and investors can still consider bargain hunting for appropriate allocation. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
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(Jufeng Finance)
