Main points
Last week, the main market indexes basically showed a downward trend, and the industry rose and fell. On the disk, the Shanghai index fell 0.39%, the component index fell 1.06%, the gem index fell 4.00%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.67%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.35%, the China Securities 500 fell 0.49%, the China Securities 1000 fell 1.49% and the science and Innovation Board fell 2.88%. Shenwanyi industry rose and fell, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (6.56%), food and beverage (3.76%) and building materials (2.37%) among the top gainers; Power equipment (- 7.37%), non-ferrous metals (- 5.13%) and steel (- 3.99%) led the decline.
Last week, the volume of the two cities fell slightly, and the funds going north showed a net outflow. Last week, the average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1086.042 billion, down 6.71% from 1164188 billion in the previous period; The average daily trading volume of the two cities was 90.331 billion shares, down 3.97% month on month. In terms of RMB, the total outflow from the land stock connect to the north is 1.221 billion yuan, including 1.12 billion yuan from the Shanghai Stock connect and 2.341 billion yuan from the Shenzhen Stock connect; The balance of the two financial institutions fell month on month, closing 1831.980 billion yuan on Friday, down 9.966 billion yuan month on month; Among them, the balance of financing was 1714.953 billion yuan and the balance of securities lending was 117.017 billion yuan.
Profits of industrial enterprises have improved. We believe that the profit structure of China’s industrial enterprises has been continuously optimized and the profit balance margin of the industry has improved. However, the pressure on the cost side is still large, so it is necessary to continue to promote cross cycle adjustment and accurate support for small, medium and micro enterprises; In addition, there are signs of scattered outbreak of the epidemic in China, which has a great negative impact on the profits of enterprises in some regions. In the follow-up, it is still necessary to continuously observe the profit growth and structure of Chinese industrial enterprises.
The signal of steady growth is clear, the strength of cross cycle regulation is combined with counter cycle regulation. On December 24, the central bank held the regular meeting of the fourth quarter monetary policy committee. We believe that this meeting continued the tone of the central economic work conference, made a clearer deployment, adhered to the tone of stable growth, and the monetary policy was “more active and promising”. In the face of triple pressure, we used the combination of counter cyclical and cross cyclical, and the combination of aggregate and structure to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity. Generally speaking, the current relatively loose liquidity environment is basically clear.
The steady growth signal is clear, and the cross year market evolves to “spring agitation”. We recently released the 2022 annual report “looking for structural opportunities”, which mentioned that China’s economy will evolve from stagflation like period to recession like period in 2022, economic growth will face great pressure, and the overall risk of A-Shares is greater than opportunities, focusing on the timing of monetary policy changes. At present, A-Shares remain volatile as a whole. Since mid December, the index has made some adjustments. The market resistance mainly comes from the pressure of economic growth, which makes the market worry rise. The central economic work conference defined the goal of steady economic growth next year. The one-year LPR reduction of 5bp is also a prelude and important measure to steady growth. Subsequent relevant policies are worth looking forward to. The Spring Festival in the year of the tiger is relatively early. After entering 2022, it is expected that there will be a round of liquidity launch, which is relatively good information for the market. This week is the last full week of 2021, and the index will also evolve from the cross year market to the “spring agitation” at the beginning of each year. We believe that the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but with the release of liquidity after the next year, it is expected that the “spring agitation” in 2022 may come earlier than in previous years. The industry can pay attention to military industry, food and beverage, beauty care.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation exceeds expectations, liquidity tightening exceeds expectations, and economic recovery is less than expected]
