research conclusion
Event: on December 27, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest profit data of industrial enterprises. From January to November, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a profit of 7975.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.0% (previous value 42.2%), and an average increase of 18.9% (previous value 19.7%) in two years.
In November, the measures to ensure price and supply stability were initially effective, and the driving effect of the mining industry on the profit growth of industrial enterprises was weakened. Accordingly, from January to November, the two-year compound growth rate of the total profits of the overall industrial enterprises decreased by 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the two-year compound growth rate in a single month decreased by 14.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. In November, the national development and Reform Commission continued to strengthen the regulation of the coal market, the rise of upstream coal prices shrank significantly, and the profits of the mining industry fell significantly year-on-year that month. From the perspective of cumulative profit margin, the month on month increase of the mining industry was significantly reduced from the previous month, only 0.3 percentage points.
The profit growth of the downstream consumer goods manufacturing industry improved, and the profit of the textile industry chain improved significantly compared with the revenue. Driven by factors such as the stable recovery of consumer goods production and the recovery of prices, the profit growth of consumer goods manufacturing industry significantly accelerated in November, and the cumulative profit growth of food manufacturing industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry, textile industry and textile clothing and apparel industry increased year-on-year. Among them, the revenue and profit trend of textile industry and textile clothing and apparel industry were differentiated, The cumulative revenue decreased by 0.8 and 0.6 percentage points respectively year-on-year, and the cumulative profit increased significantly by 2.7 and 8 percentage points respectively year-on-year, indicating that the cost pressure may be reduced.
The profits of the equipment manufacturing industry have also improved, but the cost pressure is still great. After the release of supply constraints, the production stabilized. In November, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry changed from negative to positive year-on-year, but the overall improvement is still slow. We believe that the reasons are: (1) general equipment and other industries are still affected by the lack of core in November; (2) the purchase price of raw materials and energy cost are high, and ppi-ppirm further widened in November.
Finished goods inventory continued to rise. From January to November, the inventory of finished products was 17.9% year-on-year, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous month, and the two-year compound growth rate was 12.5%, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous month. From the perspective of demand, the cumulative operating revenue of industrial enterprises in November was 20.3% year-on-year, down 21.1% from the previous value, and the overall industrial enterprises were in the stage of passive replenishment.
The leverage of the energy supply industry has increased. In November, the asset liability ratio of industrial enterprises rose by 0.1 percentage points to 56.4%, of which the production and supply of mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water increased by – 1.4, 0 and 0.6 percentage points respectively over the previous month.
A series of policies to support small and micro enterprises have achieved initial results. According to the data interpretation of the Bureau of statistics, the profits of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises increased by 12.9% and 15.9% respectively year-on-year in November, 3.9 and 6.9 percentage points higher than the average level of industries above Designated Size respectively.
Although the latest profit data of industrial enterprises still have problems such as high cost pressure and rapid inventory growth, the industry performance is more balanced, the profits of the middle and lower reaches are improved compared with the previous ones, and the policy support for small and micro enterprises is also beginning to bear fruit. Looking forward to the follow-up, with the further transmission of the policy effect of ensuring price and stable supply, the profits of middle and downstream enterprises are expected to continue to improve.
Risk tips:
Raw material prices fell less than expected, resulting in the suppression of profits in the middle and lower reaches.
