Macro categories:
On December 27, there were 1.09 million newly confirmed cases of covid-19 epidemic in the world, including 321000 in the United States and 538000 in Europe excluding Russia. On the one hand, the surge of cases will squeeze the global medical system, resulting in the lack of medical care for patients with mild diseases and even patients with other diseases; On the other hand, it may exert greater pressure on officials of various countries and then introduce a stricter blockade policy. At present, the market expects that this round of new curve will peak in mid and late January. During this period, we need to be vigilant against the derivative risk impact brought by the epidemic.
Recently, China’s foreign policy and economy have shown signs of differentiation. Overseas, the economy and policies are unfavorable to asset prices, and the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchase ahead of schedule in March 2022; The European Central Bank will also gradually reduce the scale of bond purchase in 2022. Moreover, the recent continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation has been reflected in the level of economic data again, which has also led to the strengthening of anti epidemic blockade policies in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and other countries. In addition, due to differences within the Democratic Party, the process of the US $1.75 trillion spending bill has been blocked again. In China, the policy warm wind is blowing frequently. The Ministry of Finance said that the advance approval of 1.46 trillion special bonds has been issued, and it is expected to accelerate the release in the first quarter of next year. The national standing committee also mentioned “helping enterprises to rescue, promoting the steady development of foreign trade and maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate”, and the trend of monetary marginal loosening continues. The growth rate of credit pulse and social financing stock in the forward-looking data shows signs of bottoming, but the synchronous data still continues to be under pressure. At present, commodities still need to wait for the confirmation signal of “policy bottom” driving “economic bottom”.
Generally speaking, under the background of monetary marginal loosening, we are relatively friendly to China’s stock index. We continue to be optimistic about China’s stock index from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year; The recent trend of commodities is not clear, and we still need to wait for the confirmation signal that the “policy bottom” drives the “economic bottom”. The real estate and infrastructure highly related to domestic demand industrial products have not been significantly improved. On the one hand, foreign demand industrial products face the risk of demand impact caused by overseas epidemic, on the other hand, there is still a gap between supply and demand of natural gas in Europe, and the electricity price still depends on natural gas supply in the short term.
Strategy (order of strength): the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) are bargain hunting and multi matching; commodities are neutral, of which Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) can still bargain hunting and multi matching; treasury bonds are neutral;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
