The operation of monetary policy is more relaxed. The central bank working meeting in 2022 is held earlier than that in 2021, which is consistent with the central economic working meeting. The tone of monetary policy at the central bank working meeting in 2022 is flexible and appropriate, which is consistent with the tone of monetary policy in 2020. Considering that the monetary policy needs to cooperate with the covid-19 epidemic in 2020 and the monetary policy is relaxed, the monetary operation in 2022 is more relaxed as a whole, which is more relaxed than the "flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate" in 2021.
Social financing and loans have made a good start again. In 2022, China's monetary policy will return to "flexible and appropriate", and the growth rate of social financing and loans will rise at the same time. This upward trend will appear in Q1, and loans may make a good start again in Q1.
To stabilize the macro-economy, the policy mix is not over yet. The central bank will quickly adjust the operation rhythm of monetary policy according to the economic situation in 2022, "effectively shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy and take the initiative to launch monetary and financial policies conducive to economic stability". In the working meeting, the central bank earnestly implemented the spirit of the central economic working meeting and took the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy as its own responsibility, but the issue of leverage was not mentioned. At the regular meeting of the monetary policy committee in the fourth quarter, the central bank proposed to be more proactive and give full play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, which is in the same vein as the 2022 economic work conference. The central bank will still launch the policy of stabilizing the economy in the first quarter. At present, it is still possible to continue to reduce the reserve requirement and interest rate in the first half of next year.
Increase financial support in key areas. In 2022, the central bank's second priority is to provide financial support to key areas, including small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, science and technology enterprises, energy conservation and emission reduction enterprises and supporting agriculture.
The policy has entered a stable period. In 2022, the central bank's supervision is mainly reflected in stabilizing the existing achievements. It is difficult to see more stringent regulatory measures in the short term, and the overall policy has entered a stable period. In terms of supervision, we will improve the systematic risk monitoring and evaluation framework and carry out macro Prudential stress testing. In terms of dealing with financial risks, administrative stability is enhanced, and financial risks need to be handled more steadily.
From the perspective of policy, China's loose monetary policy and fiscal policy will continue to at least the first quarter, and may continue to April to may according to the policy effect. In the first quarter, we can see the upward growth of social financing and credit. At the same time, we can still expect to reduce the reserve requirement and interest rate again.
