On March 8, the stock indexes of the two cities continued to be weak and fell again across the board. The Shanghai index fell by more than 2% and fell to 3300 points, a new low in 16 months; The Shenzhen Component Index once fell by more than 3%, and the gem index fell by more than 2% and fell to 2600 points; The turnover of the two cities has been enlarged. It has exceeded trillion for four consecutive trading days, with a significant net outflow of funds from the north and a net sales of nearly 9 billion yuan throughout the day.
As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 2.35% to 329353 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.62% to 122445 points, and the gem index fell 1.8% to 258299 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 1109.9 billion yuan, and the net sale of funds from the North was 8.699 billion yuan.
Coal, gas, insurance and other sectors fell sharply; Lithium, assisted reproduction, covid-19 drugs, covid-19 testing, baby concept and other collective plummeted; The concept of counting East and West and auto chip bucked the market.
For the recent market trend, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that it is necessary to pay close attention to the impact of the external environment such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the Chinese market. If the geopolitical risk does not significantly exceed expectations, there is no need to worry too much about the future performance of a shares. In terms of structure, the risk of growth stocks has been released in the early correction, and gradually entered the stage of “bargain hunting”; The “steady growth” sector fluctuates more, but there may still be room for performance in the future. On the whole, the market style is better than the “steady growth” in the early stage, and it is possible to gradually transition to a relatively balanced stage.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities also said that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the short-term adjustment of the market. In the future, the molecular end will accelerate and the market warmth will become stronger. However, the negative disturbance at the denominator end is still the medium-term constraint of the market, limiting the recovery range. Don’t forget to cover the spring. 1) The molecular end will accelerate the force: the two sessions will release positive signals. The GDP target growth rate of 5.5% in 2022 indicates that steady growth will accelerate the force. PMI has recovered slightly in February, and the molecular end will continue to play a supporting role in the future, making the market bottom down. Specifically mapped to the expected growth rate of earnings of listed companies, it can also be observed that the recent all a earnings expectation remains stable, even slightly higher than the predicted growth rate in early December. 2) The impact on the denominator is hard to break: the expected contraction of overseas liquidity and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine dominate the recent fluctuation on the denominator. In terms of overseas liquidity, the US non farm income increased by 678000 in February, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. It is a high probability that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp in March. In the future, the substantial implementation of the interest rate hike will reduce the uncertainty of liquidity expectations in stages. At the same time, Powell’s “inflation may fall within the year” on Wednesday also points to the rhythm of “Eagle before Dove” throughout the year, and the negative impact of overseas liquidity will be gradually weakened. However, with the continuous rise of crude oil and other bulk prices, the uncertainty of inflation outlook is still high, overseas liquidity will still be the medium-term constraint of the market, and the negative impact is difficult to break in the short term. In addition, the prospect of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not clear, and the contagion of overseas emotions will still have an impact on market risk appetite. Overall, the market will gradually heat up in late March, but the impact on the denominator is difficult to break, which limits the recovery range.
