Key investment points:
From January to February, the export was 16.3% year-on-year, and the import was 15.5% year-on-year
In US dollars, from January to February 2022, China's exports increased by 16.3% year-on-year, down 4.6 percentage points from the previous value; Imports increased by 15.5% year-on-year, down 4 percentage points. The trade balance rose to an all-time high of $115.96 billion.
In terms of exports, the month on month growth rate of exports from January to February this year decreased compared with the same period last year, but higher than the average value in the same period in history. The year-on-year growth rate of exports achieved a higher level on the basis of last year's high base, which was better than market expectations.
In terms of import, due to the dual impact of the decline in import volume and price growth, the import growth rate of bulk raw materials decreased significantly, and the import growth rate continued to decline.
External demand is still expanding, but the marginal growth rate slows down
(1) from the perspective of major exporting countries and regions, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to ASEAN and Australia increased from January to February, and the growth rate of exports to the EU, the United States and Japan fell to varying degrees, among which the growth rate of exports to the United States decreased by 7.5 percentage points. As the manufacturing expansion of major overseas economies slowed down as a whole, the marginal growth rate of foreign demand fell.
(2) from the perspective of major export commodities, the growth rate of China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) export increased from January to February, and the growth rate of electromechanical products and high-tech products decreased significantly.
The import growth rate of bulk raw materials decreased significantly
(1) from the perspective of major importing countries and regions, the year-on-year growth rate of imports from the European Union, Japan and the United States increased from January to February; The import growth rate of other major trading partners fell, among which the import growth rate of ASEAN and Australia fell significantly.
(2) from the perspective of major imported commodities, the import growth rate of mechanical and electrical products increased, and the import growth rate of bulk raw materials fell sharply. From the perspective of volume and price, the import volume of large raw materials such as crude oil and iron ore increased negatively year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth rate of import price decreased, resulting in a significant decline in the growth rate of import amount.
The export growth center is expected to move down this year
In terms of exports, the continuous expansion of manufacturing industry in overseas economic system and the rise of prices significantly pushed up China's export growth center last year. At present, the manufacturing expansion speed of overseas economies is slowing down as a whole, and the marginal decline of the shipping price index is also observed. It is expected that the growth rate of foreign demand will slow down this year, and the export growth center will move down compared with last year.
In terms of import, we will continue to pay attention to the extent and rhythm of China's need for repair, as well as the impact of commodity price trend on import amount.
Risk tips
Unexpected changes in overseas epidemics and international relations will bring unpredictable disturbances to trade.
