[Jufeng viewpoint]
On Tuesday morning, A-Shares opened high and went low, and the stock index rose and fell in the afternoon. On the disk, the semiconductor industry bucked the trend and strengthened; Traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, medical devices, biological products, energy metals, coal, beauty care, gas, chemical pharmacy, shipping ports, logistics, aerospace, household light industry, etc. In terms of subject matter stocks, the number of East and West counts against the market, and covid-19 drugs, Sino Russian trade concept, assisted reproduction, transgenic, Helicobacter pylori, hair medicine, baby and child concept, covid-19 detection, traditional Chinese medicine concept, salt lake lithium extraction, traditional Chinese medicine concept and other sectors fell by more than 5%.
[technical review]
The market has entered the third wave of rising market on the weekly line. Now, after the adjustment of the third wave of rising market, the market has formed a medium-term volatile market.
In the short term, the market rebounded after the Spring Festival, which is expected to gradually shake and bottom. The overall market still fluctuates in a large range at 34003700 points.
[hot sector]
The East counts the West as the West counts the West as a stronger East: the strength of the East counts the West as the West counts the strength of the East: ‘ Leon Technology Co.Ltd(300603) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\east: the East counts the West as the East: a strong east counts the West: the strength: Leon Technology Co.Ltd(300603) Leon Technology Co.Ltd(300603) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ and others rose by more than 7%.
Changes in the concept of Futures: Yong’an futures rose by more than 5%, with Zoje Resources Investment Co.Ltd(002021) , Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) , Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) and others leading the rise.
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[highlights inventory]
expert: Overseas factors disturb short-term sentiment, and the long-term fundamentals of A-Shares are still stable
Recently, affected by external factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the A-share market has adjusted as a whole. In this regard, a number of industry experts told the Shanghai Securities News that short-term external factors may lead to the release of capital sentiment. However, judging from the statements made by all parties at the two sessions, China’s economic development and enterprise fundamentals are highly uncertain, and the short-term emotional disturbance does not hinder the long-term stability and improvement of the market.
Brent crude oil futures once approached $140. Experts remind: beware of “climbing high and falling heavy”
On March 7, WTI crude oil futures hit $130.5/barrel and Brent crude oil futures hit $139.13/barrel. Several experts interviewed said that the escalation of geographical conflicts led to the rise of oil prices. The rise in oil prices has a differentiated impact on the industrial chain. Once the geopolitical situation eases, oil prices may “rise and fall”.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : there may be room for further easing of monetary policy
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the government work report further determined the target of stable growth, the implementation of monetary policy should be strengthened, the follow-up monetary policy may have room for further easing, and the window of RRR reduction is gradually approaching. At the stage when the economy is still below the growth target, it is expected that the 1-year MLF interest rate of 2.85% is still the phased top of the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate. In the environment where the monetary policy remains loose and the credit still needs to be verified, the allocation sector is defensive. However, as there is still room for further easing of the follow-up monetary policy, it can appropriately participate in the band trading opportunities after the interest rate exceeds the fall.
[fund trend]
According to statistics, as of the closing, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a net outflow of funds. On that day, the net outflow of funds from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 63.074 billion yuan, today’s super large single net outflow was 31.983 billion yuan, large single net outflow was 31.991 billion yuan, medium single inflow was 6.958 billion yuan, and small single net inflow was 56.116 billion yuan.
[limit analysis]
Today, the daily limit was 23 and the daily limit was 75;
Today, the number of trading boards in the two cities decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the number of trading boards increased compared with the previous trading day. The daily limit data showed that market sentiment fell sharply today compared with the previous trading day Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) data show that the trading limits of individual stocks in the two cities are mostly concentrated in sub new shares and other sectors. The theme heat of the two cities is poor and the profit-making effect is poor.
[viewpoint strategy]
After the opening of the morning trading, the stock index fluctuated and fell. The strong concept of three children fell sharply on Monday, oil, natural gas, oil and gas equipment and services made up for the decline, while photovoltaic, semiconductor, wine making, tourist hotels, East digital West computing and other sectors surged and fell, maintaining the market heat; The gem index fell below the 2600 point mark. There have been many changes in the trading of securities companies, and the effect of protecting the market is not obvious. Since then, the decline of the stock index has deepened, and the Shanghai index has hit a new low since November 2020, falling below the 3300 point mark.
In the afternoon opening, insurance, futures, photovoltaic, semiconductor and other sectors rose, and the decline of stock index narrowed Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and other heavyweights on the gem rose, driving the gem index to turn red for a time. After 14 o’clock, the stock index weakened again, the price of bulk commodities in the external market soared, the London nickel soared 250% in two days, driving the price of bulk commodities in China higher, A-Shares plunged sharply, and only the concept of futures showed some performance. With the market adjustment, the trading volume broke trillion for four consecutive days, and the northward capital fled more than 8 billion on a large scale today. Drawing on the market trend of A-Shares in March in the past, it is suggested to sell high rather than chase up for individual stocks with abnormal movements in the session.
Generally speaking, Jufeng investment adviser believes that the central bank has continuously cut reserve requirements and interest rates since December last year to release liquidity, indicating that the policy bottom has appeared; However, the construction of the market bottom is more complex and there is a time lag between the market bottom and the policy bottom, so the trend of A-Shares has twists and turns. After the Spring Festival, the liquidity of the market improved, and A-Shares began to oversold and rebound. The value and growth rose one after another, but the rebound has come to an end. A-share bottom box is a good opportunity for high throwing and low absorption; The medium-term proposal takes growth as the main line, and individual stocks with higher than expected growth in the annual report and the first quarter report can continue to participate in the rebound.
