Event: since December, the bill discount rate has declined rapidly. On December 23, the discount rate of one month state-owned bank notes was 0.006%, three months was 0.007% and six months was 0.08%, a record low. "Zero interest rate" notes are highly concerned by the market. Our comments are as follows:
Bill discount: it is often used by banks to adjust the credit gap. The supply of bank bill funds dominates the trend of interest rate. Bill discount and rediscount are included in bank loans, occupy credit lines, and are often used to adjust credit gaps. When the bank credit line is insufficient, the undue bills can be discounted to vacate the credit line. When the bank credit line is sufficient and the effective credit demand of entity enterprises is insufficient, banks will do more bill discounting to fill the credit gap. Generally, the amount of funds transferred by enterprises through bill financing is relatively stable, so the demand side (enterprises) of bill funds fluctuates little. The trend of bill interest rate is mainly determined by the fluctuation of bill fund supply side of banks. If the supply is greater than the demand, the interest rate decreases.
Since March, the demand for physical credit has weakened, banks have filled the gap through bill collection, and the bill interest rate has a downward trend. Since March this year, the bill interest rate has begun to decline. Mainly under a series of strict regulatory policies such as real estate and local financing platforms, economic growth has gradually slowed down and the credit demand of real enterprises has continued to shrink. In order to meet the credit growth target, banks tend to collect bills in the market. The increase in the capital supply of bill discount leads to the decline of bill interest rate.
Since December, the downward rate of bill interest rate has accelerated, even close to "zero interest rate". We think it is mainly due to the following two reasons:
(1) The transmission of the steady growth policy takes time, and the demand for real credit is still insufficient. In terms of fiscal policy, the issuance of local government bonds has maintained a certain intensity in recent months, and the fiscal force has increased steadily. However, due to the great efforts to rectify the hidden debt of local governments in recent two years, the source of funds of local governments is limited, which affects the time and scale of the implementation of some infrastructure projects and transmits it to relevant departments It will take some time for the demand for infrastructure financing to grow. In terms of monetary policy, banks are guided to increase credit supply and reduce enterprise financing costs by reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, but they do not directly drive demand; At present, the financing demand driven by enterprises is still insufficient due to the frequent outbreak of epidemic diseases in all parts of China, dual control of energy consumption, credit default risk of real estate enterprises and other factors.
(2) Law of bank credit extension: generally, it tends to be extended at the beginning of the year and has a low willingness to extend at the end of the year. From the law of bank credit extension, it tends to be extended at the beginning of the year and benefit early; there are more credit lines in the whole year, and the allocation task has been basically completed by the first half of the year and the fourth quarter. The business department has a low willingness to extend credit at the end of the year and is more inclined to extend the reserve items to next year Launch at the beginning of the year. Since the fourth quarter of this year, regulators have stressed stabilizing credit and increasing credit lines, and banks are under pressure to increase credit. In order to meet the regulatory requirements, bill discount and rediscount are more done.
Follow up outlook: under the steady growth policy, the credit demand for infrastructure real estate is expected to gradually recover next year, driving the growth of effective credit demand of entities; In addition, at the beginning of the year, the bank has a strong willingness to extend credit, the investment intensity is expected to increase, and the bill interest rate is expected to rise to the normal level. (1) Credit demand: with the improvement of infrastructure and real estate policies, credit is expected to be gradually repaired. The central economic work conference proposed that "we should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and moderately advance infrastructure investment"; "promote the construction of affordable housing and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies" 。 It is expected that the implementation speed of infrastructure projects will be accelerated, driving the growth of supporting financing demand; The marginal adjustment of real estate policy is expected to repair the credit demand in relevant fields. It is expected that the credit demand may be gradually repaired next year. (2) Credit supply: at the beginning of the year, the bank's willingness to extend credit was released, which is expected to usher in a "good start" of credit extension.
Investment suggestion: since December, the bill interest rate has fallen rapidly, which is the result of the weak effective credit demand of real enterprises and the law of bank credit supply, which is short-term. We expect that under the steady growth policy, the credit demand for infrastructure real estate is expected to gradually recover next year, driving the growth of effective credit demand of entities; In addition, at the beginning of the year, the bank has a strong willingness to extend credit, the investment intensity is expected to increase, and the bill interest rate is expected to rise to the normal level. At present, the positions and valuations of banking sector institutions are at a historically low level, with room for repair. In terms of individual stocks, they are optimistic about small and medium-sized banks ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ) and retail banks ( Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) ) with regional advantages.
Risk tip: economic stall and downturn lead to deterioration of asset quality; Unexpected changes in regulatory policies, etc.
