1. Market Review
From January 1, 2021 to December 20, 2021, the media sector underperformed the market, increased by 0.2%, the proportion of fund positions continued to decline, and the over allocation proportion was negative.
Among the media sub sectors, the Internet and marketing communication led the decline, falling 6.4% and 0.8% respectively from January 1 to December 20, 2021. Mainly because: 1) the Internet is affected by antitrust policies; 2) Marketing is mainly affected by the epidemic situation, and education and Internet customers are reduced due to the negative impact of policies. Film and television, online games and publishing performed well, rising by 20.4%, 16.2% and 7.9% respectively during the period. Mainly because: 1) online game q3-q4 is affected by the hot concept of meta universe, and the emotional side catalyzes the market; 2) The film and television industry has performed well due to the recovery of the epidemic and the catalysis of the meta universe.
2. Investment main line 1: the game industry looks at the product cycle in the short term and the sea in the long term
The game industry is suppressed by multiple factors such as cycle, purchase cost and policy supervision. There have been many callback since mid-2020. At the current time point, we believe that the industry impact brought by policy supervision is basically coming to an end. The game industry and e-sports industry are the main melody of the development of the global cultural industry, and promoting the healthy and standardized development of the industry is the key. With the efficiency improvement of the industry’s purchase volume entering the mature stage, the industry ushering in a new product cycle and the emotional repair of strict policy supervision, we believe that we should pay attention to the investment opportunities at the bottom, pay attention to the product cycle of leading companies in the short term, and be optimistic about the incremental space brought by the sea market in the long term. It is suggested to focus on Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , heart company and ZuLong entertainment.
3. Investment main line 2: channel ends such as cinema line and long video pay attention to the change of competition pattern and the recovery of content supply
Cinemas – in 2021, due to the lack of overseas film content supply and the repeated regional epidemic, the overall box office performance of the offline entertainment industry is under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, the reserves of overseas and domestic films are sufficient, the supply is repaired, and the overall box office performance is expected to continue to be repaired. In addition, some small and medium-sized cinemas have been cleared during the epidemic, and the competition pattern is expected to improve; Long video – there will be a partial shortage of content supply under strong content supervision in 2021. We believe that the content is expected to be released intensively in 2022. In addition, the pattern of long video is expected to improve gradually. It is suggested to focus on the leading Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) ; Content leading company Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , reading group; Long video company Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) .
4. Investment main line 3: pay attention to the investment opportunities of meta universe virtual human
Metauniverse has three major investment directions: NFT, virtual human and AR / VR. We believe that virtual human has rich application scenarios and faster commercialization, so the investment opportunities are better. Demand side: tiktok and virtual master Liu Yexi’s demand for virtual digital people can be seen from the jitter of the jitter and the virtual phone maker’s demand for the virtual digital people. The market demand of virtual people is greater than that of the B. Looking forward to 2022, we think it will be a year for the gradual implementation of virtual business. It is suggested to pay attention to the direction of virtual human live broadcast, virtual idol, virtual brand image and virtual space, and focus on Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) , Beijing Jetsen Technology Co.Ltd(300182) , Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) .
Risk statement
1. Stricter policy supervision;
2. Repeated epidemics have led to strict control of cinema attendance;
3. The launch time of game products is delayed;
4. Default risk caused by artist’s personal reasons, etc;
5. The copyright of virtual human.
