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On December 27, zoth automotive research released that from January to September 2021, the sales volume of DMS system of new passenger cars in China reached 250000 sets, with a same increase of 244% and a penetration rate of 1.7%. In 2020, the sales volume of DMS system for new passenger cars in China reached 130000 sets, with a penetration rate of 0.7%, and the industry penetration rate increased rapidly.
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The penetration rate of DMS camera is much lower than that of ADAS camera, and there is broad room for improvement in the future. According to different purposes, cameras can be divided into imaging cameras Perceptual camera (ADAS camera). The imaging camera is used for passive safety and stores or sends the captured images to users. The ADAS camera is used for active safety and needs to accurately capture images. According to different positions, the on-board camera can be divided into front view camera, side view camera, environment view camera, rear view camera and cabin camera. DMS camera is mainly an imaging camera Applied in the cabin, its main functions include driver fatigue detection, face recognition and other functions. In 2020, the penetration rate of DMS industry (0.7%) is far lower than that of ADAS camera (15%). It is expected that the penetration rate of DMS lens will increase rapidly in the future with the active carrying and function upgrading of main engine manufacturers.
It is estimated that the vehicle lens market will reach 25 billion yuan in 2025 and the CAGR will be 31% in five years. 1) Automatic driving can be divided into six levels l0 ~ L5. At present, the mainstream automatic driving level is between L2 ~ L3. Its main functions include reversing monitoring, panoramic Parking Aid, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise, front collision warning, intelligent speed control, lane departure warning, pedestrian detection system, traffic signal and sign recognition, Generally, L2 level intelligent assisted driving is equipped with 5 ~ 8 cameras, and L3 level intelligent assisted driving is equipped with 8 ~ 16 cameras. L4 and L5 automatic driving ADAS systems are still in the research and development stage, and generally need to be equipped with more than 13 cameras. 2) According to TSR, in 2020, the global shipment of on-board cameras reached 165 million, the CAGR reached 30% in the past decade, and the number of cameras carried by a single vehicle reached 2.1. In 2025, the number of cameras carried on a single vehicle will be 5.5. Assuming that the global vehicle sales volume is 90 million, the global vehicle camera sales volume will be 500 million in 2025. Assuming that the average price of vehicle camera lens in 2020 is 40 yuan, considering the specification upgrading, the price will increase by 5% each year in the future, corresponding to the global vehicle camera lens market of 25 billion yuan in 2025 and 31% CAGR in five years.
Shunyu optics is the absolute leader, and second-line enterprises have great prospects. The market pattern of vehicle mounted lens presents a situation of “one super and many strong”. In 2020, the shipment of Shunyu optics will exceed 56 million, with a market share of 34%. The second to eighth are foreign-funded enterprises, with a market share of 38%. Among ADAS lenses with higher specifications and barriers, Shunyu optics accounts for more than 50%. China’s Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) and Dongguan Yutong Optical Technology Co.Ltd(300790) actively layout the field of vehicle mounted lens. Although the market share is low at present, we believe that China’s second-line vehicle mounted lens enterprises have great prospects in the future with the rise of new forces in vehicle manufacturing in China.
There are high barriers in the vehicle lens industry, and companies with molded glass lenses have more advantages. Optical lens is a high barrier industry. Mold design and manufacturing and lens design and manufacturing are very difficult. Design requires rigorous formulas and imagination. Manufacturing requires a lot of know-how to ensure the yield. Vehicle lens has higher barriers, mostly all glass lens or glass plastic hybrid lens. Aspheric glass lens has outstanding advantages, and companies with modeling lens production capacity have more advantages.
Investment advice
In the wave of intelligent driving, we are optimistic about investment opportunities in the vehicle lens industry with high growth, high barriers and good pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to sunny optical technology (vehicle lens leader, actively layout vehicle module, lidar, HUD and intelligent headlamp business), Dongguan Yutong Optical Technology Co.Ltd(300790) (security lens leader actively layout vehicle lens field, and there are post installed products shipped at present), Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) (vehicle lens has obvious first mover advantage, Tesla and velai vehicle lens suppliers), Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) (aspheric glass lens supplier).
Risk statement
Intelligence is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, and technology iteration risks.
