Production profile of national power industry from January to November 2021
In November, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 671.8 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and the CAGR in the same period from 2019 to 2021 was 6.6%; The power generation capacity of power plants above the national standard was 654 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and the CAGR in the two years was 5.4%; The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment are 303 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 18 hours; The newly installed capacity was 17.1 million KW, 460000 kW more than that in the same period last year. From January to November, the power consumption of the whole society was 7.50 trillion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and the CAGR in the same period from 2019 to 2021 was 7.3%; The power generation capacity of power plants above the national standard was 7.38 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and the CAGR in the two years was 6.7%; The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment are 3483 hours, an increase of 14 and 87 hours over the same period in 2019 and 2020. By the end of November, the installed capacity of power plants above the designated size was 2.171 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the CAGR in the two years was 7.6%; From January to November, the newly installed capacity was 123 million KW, 20.5 million KW more than the same period last year, an increase of 20.1%; The total investment in power supply and power grid projects of major enterprises was 840.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and the CAGR in the two years was 13.0%.
Key indicators
Electricity consumption: the second production is weak, and the cold winter is expected to be empty.
Power generation: thermal power declined for the first time in the year, while nuclear power remained flat month on month.
Utilization hours: wind and light are preferred, and water, fire and nuclear give way.
New installed capacity: more than 11gw of wind and light are added in a single month.
Project investment: significant recovery of power grid
Investment advice
The expected La Nina cold winter has not yet arrived, and the demand for secondary production is still weak. The meteorological bureau predicts that the temperature in December is high, the cold winter is expected to be empty, and the power shortage dilemma is temporarily over.
The high-profile trading results of Jiangsu and Guangdong long term association in 2022 were released, The prices of hydropower, nuclear power and other market-oriented electricity will rise by 19.4% (taking 0.391 yuan / kWh as the benchmark price) and 7.4% (taking 0.463 yuan / kWh as the benchmark price). The increase of transaction electricity price will improve the electricity price level of hydropower, nuclear power and other market-oriented electricity. Hydropower sector recommends China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) ; thermal power sector recommends Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; nuclear power sector recommends China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) ； The scenery operation section recommends China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) .
Risk statement
Utilization hours decrease: macroeconomic operation will affect utilization hours;
Fluctuation of on grid price: power market transaction may cause fluctuation of on grid price;
Rising coal prices: for thermal power enterprises dominated by coal engines, rising fuel costs will reduce profits;
Precipitation reduction: the operating performance of hydropower mainly depends on the incoming water and consumption;
The policy promotion is not as expected: the policy always controls the electricity price, and the state of power supply and demand may affect the construction of new nuclear power units.
