Today, there was a significant adjustment in a shares. The gem index in the core index fell sharply, and the gem index and Shenzhen composite index both hit new lows during the year Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) global chief economist Guan Tao told the securities times that recently, affected by geopolitical risk events, the turbulence in overseas markets has intensified, and China's stock market has also been affected by contagion effects. However, China's capital market is expected to remain resilient and even get out of an independent market.
Guan Tao believes that due to the recent geopolitical risk events, the turbulence in overseas markets has intensified, and China's stock market has also been affected by the contagion effect. China Merchants Fund also pointed out that the core reason for the market adjustment is the intensification of overseas liquidity pressure. Under the expected contraction of overseas liquidity and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market pressure has led to the fluctuation of the stock index.
Market participants generally believe that the short-term pressure on the market does not change the medium and long-term good trend of a shares.
"From four aspects, China's capital market is expected to remain resilient and even get out of the independent market." Guan Tao said: first, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on China's economy is mainly indirect, and the overall impact is limited; Second, China has released a series of policy signals for steady growth, which will help boost market confidence and improve corporate profits as the policies come into effect; Third, in recent years, the basic system of China's capital market has been continuously improved, the quality of listed companies has been gradually improved, and investors are becoming more and more mature, which is conducive to the healthy development of the capital market; Fourth, the valuation of China's stock market is basically reasonable and at a historical low, which helps to resist external shocks.
China Merchants Fund said that looking forward to the future, the A-share market will work along the undervalued value and strive to grasp infrastructure and consumption. In the future, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the short-term adjustment of the market. The two sessions have released positive signals. The GDP target growth rate of 5.5% in 2022 indicates that steady growth will accelerate, enterprise profits will accelerate, and the market is getting warmer. In terms of structural allocation, look for the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, focusing on infrastructure and consumption. With regard to infrastructure, the intention of financial development in the government work report is obvious, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue. In addition to infrastructure construction, we should also pay more attention to consumption and investment opportunities. For example, the government work report puts forward "promoting residents' income increase through multiple channels, improving the income distribution system and improving consumption capacity". At the same time, it also refers to green smart appliances going to the countryside and exchanging the old for the new ". Overall, the A-share market fluctuates in the short term, but is not pessimistic in the medium and long term. The demand for stable growth is strong, the positive factors are revised, and the risk appetite is expected to rise slowly from the low level.
The CICC strategy team believes that in the medium and long term, China is an important manufacturing country in the world, with the world's largest and relatively complete industrial chain. As long as China's trend of seeking scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading remains unchanged, China may be relatively more resilient in supply risk, there is still room for Chinese policy and the valuation is relatively low, The Chinese market may continue to show relative resilience in the global turmoil, and the undervalued "steady growth" sector may have relative gains.
