Recently, affected by external factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the A-share market has adjusted as a whole. In this regard, a number of industry experts told the Shanghai Securities News that short-term external factors may lead to the release of capital sentiment. However, judging from the statements made by all parties at the two sessions, China's economic development and enterprise fundamentals are highly uncertain, and the short-term emotional disturbance does not hinder the long-term stability and improvement of the market.
In terms of overseas factors, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) chief economist Wang Han said that external events such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have led to turbulence in overseas financial markets, and the global capital allocation is facing the process of asset rebalancing. A shares with relatively strong performance may be under the pressure of short-term capital outflow. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up global inflation expectations, but in contrast, China's inflation pressure is much lower than that of some major overseas economies.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist Wang Hanfeng believes that the supply risk caused by short-term geographical conflicts and other factors may continue to ferment, aggravating the market's concern about "stagflation" of the global economy. However, China is an important manufacturing country in the world and has the world's largest and relatively complete industrial chain. As long as China continues to pursue scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, China will be relatively more resilient in the global supply risk.
In terms of macro economy, Wang Hanfeng believes that according to the government work report, the economic growth target this year is set at about 5.5%, higher than the previous expectations of most market people. The report continues the tone of last year's central economic work conference and emphasizes that "steady growth" is one of the priorities of this year's work.
Wang Hanfeng judged that although the global market may still fluctuate in the future, the future policy space of the Chinese market is relatively sufficient. The gradual improvement of China's economic fundamentals under the comprehensive "steady growth" policy is still a probability event. In the medium term, China's capital market is expected to show relative resilience.
Wang Han stressed that the government work report first mentioned the "establishment of a financial stability guarantee fund" to resolve potential financial risks in a market-oriented and legalized manner. Before that, the market was more worried about the rise of financial risks, but the establishment of the financial stability guarantee fund undoubtedly provided a more solid guarantee for the stability of the financial system.
In terms of corporate profits, Wang Han said that this year, it is expected to continue to strengthen the policy support of "tax reduction and fee reduction" and continue to reduce corporate financing costs. These policies will have a positive impact on corporate performance. The continuous improvement of the business ecological environment will further consolidate the fundamental foundation of A-share listed companies.
"Overall, the financial and economic risks of Chinese students are expected to show a downward trend. For a shares, short-term external factors may lead to the release of capital sentiment, but in the medium and long term, China's economy and enterprise fundamentals are more uncertain." Wang Han concluded.
Wang Hanfeng also believes that the absolute valuation of China's equity market is at a relatively low historical level, and the relative valuation is also attractive compared with other major overseas markets. Overall, although the short-term fluctuations in the global financial market are "infectious", the "emotional bottom" of the A-share market has gradually approached.
