On March 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.17% and suffered three consecutive falls; The gem index fell 4.3%, a new low in nearly a year. Hong Kong stocks, which are more sensitive to geopolitical risks, fell below the "epidemic bottom" in March 2020.
What is the root cause of the A-share crash? Can the investment main line of "steady growth" be adhered to?
Exclusive dialogue with first financial reporter Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief economist Xun Yugen. In his view, the news that the United States considered banning Russian oil on Monday raised concerns about global stagflation.
"Monday's decline is not just the decline of a shares. There are deep declines in Asia Pacific stock markets and European stock markets. Monday's decline is global, and the decline of A-Shares is mainly dragged down by external factors." Xun Yugen believes that the external factors have been negative since this year, but the internal factors are positive. In particular, setting a GDP growth target of about 5.5% this year is a strong support for the market.
At present, the number of investors in the A-share market has exceeded 200 million. For investors, how to "act" at present?
In this regard, Xun Yugen believes that the current position valuation level of A-Shares is not high. If you look longer, the probability of making money in the current position is still very large.
external cause negative, internal cause positive
first finance and Economics: the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the continuous fermentation of the Ukrainian crisis are the two external factors that have dragged down A-Shares recently. However, there was a large decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on Monday. Where did the new negative factors come from
Xun Yugen: since this year, the external factors affecting the A-share market have been negative. Monday's news that the United States is considering an embargo on Russian oil has raised concerns about global stagflation.
Crude oil is the core pricing support among commodity prices. If the price of crude oil keeps rising, it will drive up commodity prices.
So concerns are reflected in global markets. Not only the A-share market fell, but also the Asia Pacific stock market fell. The Japanese stock market fell by about 3%, the European stock market also fell deeply, and France and Germany both fell by about 2%. The decline of A-Shares was more dragged down by external factors.
first finance: apart from external factors, are the internal factors affecting A-Shares positive or negative
Xun Yugen: the internal cause is positive. This year's government work report puts forward a GDP growth target of about 5.5%, which is higher than expected. Before, the general expectation of the market was between 5% and 5.5%, that is to say, the current goal is set at the "top edge" of the market expectation. It is a positive factor for the market.
The factors affecting the market play a comprehensive role. In the short term, the external negative factors are large, mainly due to the great uncertainty, and there will be some panic in everyone's heart. The short-term market adjustment is also due to this uncertainty, unable to grasp the trend, and worried about the direction of the situation out of control.
If we look beyond this external factor for a longer time, the A-share market has been disturbed by many external factors over the years, but in the end, it still returns to the internal factor decision.
At present, the valuation level of A-Shares is not high. The PE value of all A-Shares is only 18 times, and the PE value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is only about 13 times. In terms of this factor, it is low in the long run, and this position is supported by strong valuation.
If the final GDP target can reach 5.5%, the profit growth of A-Shares can still be more than 5%, and that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 can be 7%. Strategically, we should strengthen our confidence.
first finance: can you see the obvious capital outflow or negative feedback chain from the data
Xun Yugen: with the continuous fermentation of the crisis in Ukraine, there is great uncertainty, so investors show some concern. The reason why the capital market reacted more violently was also worried about uncertainty, including the progress of the Russian Ukrainian conflict itself, its impact on the global economy and inflation, as well as the possible direct and indirect impact on China.
From the perspective of foreign capital flow, I don't think we need to worry too much. Viewed from the north, the outflow scale on Monday was more than 8 billion. The net outflow in a few days in the short term is not terrible. From 2014 to now, the funds going north are net inflows in terms of the year.
Theoretically speaking, the expectation of interest rate hike in the United States is rising, the interest rate is rising, and the capital flow to the United States is established. However, in fact, the outflow has little impact, because at present, the overall allocation of foreign capital to A-Shares is still low, and the bulk of capital is still in other countries.
There is no data to confirm that the market decline may lead to negative feedback on fund redemption. The current data release has a certain lag, which needs further observation.
follow the "steady growth" and make a long-term layout
first finance: at present, the external environment is complex and the internal factors are uncertain. So from the perspective of investors, how to "act" at present? Wait and see, or layout
Xun Yugen: it is difficult to grasp the short-term market, especially when it is impacted by external factors. Therefore, many times we need medium and long-term thinking.
For example, in the next two years, the current position of A-Shares is relatively low. In the long run, the probability of earning money in this position is still very large.
If the capital is not in urgent need, it can withstand the fluctuations in the middle and focus on the long term, it may be more able to obtain higher returns.
first finance and Economics: If now is a place where we can layout, how should we layout? We can see that in the past few years, the difference in return for "stepping on the wrong" sector or track is huge
Xun Yugen: the market will eventually return to fundamentals, and there is no doubt that the biggest background this year is "steady growth".
In terms of industry selection, follow the "steady growth". However, it should be noted that "steady growth" is not simply equivalent to traditional industries. In the past two or three months, we have always said that finance and real estate rank in the first tier, and these two industries benefit from steady growth. At present, finance and real estate have a certain relative income.
We believe that the scope of "steady growth" can be expanded a little. Some new infrastructure also belong to the main line of steady growth, such as digital economy and photovoltaic wind power. Related to "steady growth", there will be greater certainty in the future.
first finance: "steady growth" was made clear at the central economic work conference last year. In terms of the stock market, has it digested this target expectation
Xun Yugen: not completely. Before, the market generally expected 5%, while the government work report set about 5.5%. The market should not fully expect this medium and high-speed target.
Of course, the target of 5.5% is indeed challenging, "it needs hard work to achieve". However, from the perspective of historical law, in the 32 years since 1990, except 1990 and 1998, the real GDP growth in other years can achieve or exceed the expected goal set by the government.
1998 was affected by flood disaster and Asian financial crisis, but the actual GDP growth of that year was also basically close to the expected target of that year. It can be seen that the expected target of GDP growth over the years is of great significance for macro policy guidance and strength reference.
This year, the national GDP growth target is about 5.5%, higher than 5.1% of the two-year compound growth rate of GDP from 2020 to 2021. It can be seen that the national intention to stabilize growth this year is clear.
We will continue to follow up the tools and means to achieve this goal, and more powerful policies and measures are expected to be introduced.
