Today (March 8), the opening of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the trading, there was a consistent decline. The three major stock indexes showed a pulse downward pattern, and the stock indexes showed signs of stabilization near noon. On the whole, the decline of A-Shares was obvious.
From the disk, the industry and concept sector again appeared the market trend, the baby rose yesterday, the auxiliary reproductive sector has become the pioneer of today’s smashing sector, the securities and Baijiu sector has the performance of the tray, but it is a pity that the disk is not effective. In the Baijiu sector, as of press release, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rose earlier. In the securities sector, Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) led, Guosheng Financial Holding Inc(002670) , Polaris Bay Group Co.Ltd(600155) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) and others followed suit.
In addition, LUNI nickel staged a “forced air war”, A-share nickel concept stocks performed strongly, Pengxin International Mining Co.Ltd(600490) limit, Hunan Corun New Energy Co.Ltd(600478) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Inner Mongolia Xingye Mining Co.Ltd(000426) and other stocks rose.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] securities companies
BOC International securities mentioned that the deepening reform of the capital market continued to advance, the undervalued value was more firm and bullish on securities companies. The recent decline of securities companies is mainly affected by overseas tightening expectations, the instability of the international situation, and the cooling of the A-share market and public fund market. Despite the emotional fluctuations caused by changes in the external environment, the continued deepening reform of the capital market is good for securities companies in the long run.
Recently, the measures for the implementation of listing and transfer of delisted companies in the delisting sector was publicly solicited for opinions, strengthened the cooperation mechanism of all institutions in the delisting process, and unblocked the delisting channel by simplifying the listing requirements of delisted companies and establishing the undertaking mechanism of host securities companies. The smooth delisting channel helps to optimize the capital market ecology of “in and out, survival of the fittest” and is the cornerstone of the full implementation of the registration system. With the continuous pace of favorable policies, securities companies still face broad development space. Under the undervalued value caused by changes in the external environment, they are more determined to look at the future trend of securities companies. If the overseas situation eases and the market valuation repair drives the trading activity again, it is expected to help the valuation repair of the sector.
The agency further analyzed and continued to recommend the trademarks of leading and financial management characteristic bonds in combination with favorable policies, performance differentiation and long-term growth drivers: 1) the reform of registration system is imminent, improve the marketization level of capital market, and bring more opportunities to head investment banks with strong comprehensive ability and their direct investment and follow-up business. Market fluctuations will lead to significant differentiation of investment business, and the trading mode of head securities companies is expected to bring more stable performance.
2) although market fluctuations may lead to a temporary decline in the scale of public fund management business and consignment business in the wealth management industry chain, residents’ wealth continues to accumulate, the policy of “housing without speculation” is unswerving, and the growth trend of wealth management demand for maintaining and increasing residents’ wealth remains unchanged, which can still bring long-term growth contributions to securities companies.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the securities sector adheres to the valuation logic from cycle to growth. With the deepening reform of the capital market, the sector may welcome valuation repair. Recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , a leading securities firm that goes out of the bear market structure and continues to benefit from the improvement of the capital market environment; Recommend companies with flexible performance in asset management and wealth management, such as Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) becoming an investor in the bankruptcy reorganization of wechat securities; It is recommended to pay attention to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) (H shares), and the insurance sector is recommended to pay attention to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) .
[theme two] Baijiu
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that for Baijiu industry, short-term efforts should be made in the long term, and the trend of structural upgrading will not be changed. Around the Spring Festival, the epidemic control and control were relatively relaxed compared with 2021, and the terminal consumption scenarios were restored. The liquor industry’s overall sales performance was stable and the channel refunds were good, but the regional differentiation characteristics (mainly caused by the epidemic in some areas) were repeated, and the performance of the Baijiu liquor was relatively better. From 2 to March, the Baijiu industry will enter the “shrinkage stage”. But the good performance of the Spring Festival has laid a good foundation for the first quarter. We think that Baijiu 22Q1 can start a good start.
For the peak season, pay attention to the opportunity + systematic effect of price increase in the beer industry. On the whole, the logic of high-end industry continues to be deduced. It is expected that with the recovery of catering demand and the decline of raw material prices (the high glass price fell in January), the price increase effect of the industry is expected to be realized in the peak season of 21q2, and the report performance will release high elasticity.
Financial letter Securities said that the current position of the Baijiu sector can be more positive. At present, the biggest difficulty faced by the industry is that the macroeconomic downturn affects the consumption capacity, while at the industry level, the price and inventory of famous wines are healthy, and the industry order is improving. Looking forward to the future, (1) the impact of the epidemic is gradually passivated, epidemic prevention policies are more flexible, and the scope of limited consumption scenarios will be further reduced; (2) With the steady growth policy, macroeconomic stabilization and recovery is a relatively certain trend. At present, the fundamentals of the industry are mainly stable, and it is expected to strengthen again with the recovery of macro viewing attitude in the future. However, due to the uncertainty of the recovery speed of consumption capacity, the weak demand period may continue for some time. This stage especially tests the channel price and inventory control ability of wine enterprises, and the winery needs to balance the volume and price.
[Topic 3] nickel concept
Everbright futures believes that Shanghai nickel ushered in the second trading limit overnight. That night, LME nickel’s maximum daily rise reached 88%. If calculated according to the closing US $50300 / ton, China’s rise still needs to reach 40% to match it. The short-term nickel price performance has been far away from the fundamentals. The lower and lower reaches of the nickel price will be impacted to varying degrees, and the wait-and-see mood may be stronger. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the end of the risk event.
Huatai futures said that the supply and demand expectation of nickel midline is not optimistic, but there are also variables in the midline expectation. Recently, lunni has been greatly strengthened due to the influence of capital game and position squeeze, and the price has been far from the scope of supply and demand. Before the end of capital game, it may still maintain a strong trend. However, the current price has been seriously divorced from supply and demand, and the downstream has suffered a large loss, so the nickel price also needs to be treated with caution.
Anxin securities mentioned that the current short-term nickel contradiction lies in the low inventory expectation caused by the shortage of refined nickel supply and demand. At present, nickel inventory is at a historical low, the downstream is gradually started after the festival, the demand for new energy is considerable, and the demand of stainless steel, alloy and other industries is also rising steadily. Under the support of fundamentals, nickel prices remain high in the short term. New supply side: according to CISC, Indonesia’s Qingshan park is increasing the production of high nickel matte, which will provide more raw material support for more new energy users in the future.
Prices are expected to remain high under low inventory and steady consumption.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) pointed out that in the medium term, China’s demand quality is still the key to dominate the medium-term trend of industrial metal commodities. Considering that it is difficult to verify or falsify the landing effect of the “steady growth” policy before mid and late March, the short-term configuration cost performance of the basic metal sector is still in. At the same time, copper, aluminum and other varieties not only have long-term supplement to the demand in the new energy field, but also are applied in the completion end where it is easier to touch the bottom and reverse in the traditional real estate field, so the long-term reversal market is also expected.
[Topic 4] calculation from the east to the West
Xiangcai securities mentioned that in 2020, the scale of China’s digital economy was US $5.4 trillion, ranking second in the world, with a growth rate of 9.6%, ranking first in the world. At present, the scale of China’s data center has reached 5 million standard racks, and the computing power has reached 130 eflops According to the prediction of the high technology department of the national development and Reform Commission, with the comprehensive and continuous penetration of digital technology into all economic and social fields, it will still grow rapidly at a rate of more than 20% every year. In 2020, the market scale of China’s Internet Data Center (IDC) has reached 223.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%.
The agency further analyzed that with the continuous breakthroughs in modern information technologies such as the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and cloud computing, the digital economy is advancing in an all-round way in China. As the core productivity of the digital economy, computing power will be the new focus of the next global strategic competition. The positioning of the data center has changed, from information service and Internet to infrastructure for the whole society, and gradually towards openness. In order to effectively support the digital transformation in various fields and provide new momentum for high-quality economic and social development. Through the East-West layout of computing facilities, it can drive the effective transfer of relevant industries and inject new impetus into the transformation and development of the western region. “Counting from the east to the west” is not only a landing project for the development of digital economy, but also an important item of new infrastructure. It will become an important starting point for steady economic growth.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that the project of “counting from east to west” requires to promote the echelon layout of the data center from east to West: the eastern hub is mainly located at the nodes with large service users and strong application demand; The western hub is committed to building a national non real-time computing power guarantee base. “Counting from the east to the west” project generally focuses on the layout of large and super large data centers to relatively rich areas such as renewable energy. In urban areas, development space is reserved for edge data centers with low delay requirements.
The basic principle of constructing the collaborative innovation system of the national integrated big data center: the data center and service resource supply are determined by the actual market demand. Focusing on the long-term goal of leading the development of global cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and blockchain, moderately advance the layout and reserve development space, which is expected to drive the growth of the number of new cabinets.
At the same time, China will basically complete the wide coverage of 5g network in 2022, and 5g user penetration is expected to reach 70%. The growth of 5g traffic and the outbreak of 5g applications such as XR and autopilot / Internet of vehicles are expected to further stimulate IDC demand, resonate with the “East digital West computing” project and improve the prosperity of IDC investment.
