As the beginning of a series of studies on near-field e-commerce, this report will focus on the sub industry of community group purchase and try to answer three core questions: 1) the relationship between community group purchase and near-field community e-commerce; 2) Opportunities and challenges of community group buying track under supervision; 3) UE optimization mode, optimization space and business strategy iteration of main players under supervision.
1. How to understand the relationship between community group buying and near-field community e-commerce—— It can be one of the advanced evolution directions
(1) What is the current situation and future space of China's community retail market? The overall scale continues to improve. In 2020, the total scale will reach 11.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5%, much higher than the growth rate of - 4% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the same year; and the online penetration rate will grow strongly, which is expected to increase from 20.9% in 2020 to 45.5% in 2025; according to the city level, the community retail regulation of second tier cities in 2020 With a model of 4.5 trillion yuan, it is the main force of community economy, with large penetration space for the third and fourth lines; In terms of sales channels, in the third and fourth tier cities and below, fresh market and grocery store channels account for a higher proportion, and small stores in sunken areas make a great contribution to the economy; In terms of sales formats, it is expected that the market share of community group purchase will increase from 1.2% to 8.7% by 2025.
(2) What are the similarities and differences between community group purchase and near-field community e-commerce? The essence of community group purchase is "pre-sale + self delivery + next day delivery" New retail, Internet traffic operation empowerment; The essence of near-field community e-commerce is to digitally transform community husband and wife stores, help them expand online communities, gather community needs, reverse to upstream industries to customize goods, and finally realize the integration of production and marketing. The same point is that they all aim to shorten the long chain flow of the traditional retail distribution system by aggregating the C-end demand, matching the commodity supply of farmers / cooperatives / suppliers, so as to improve the efficiency of all channels; The difference is that the near-field community e-commerce puts more emphasis on the creation of "digital network system", including the digital connection of supply chain and community stores, while community group buying focuses more on the digitization of consumer behavior.
(3) What are the iteration difficulties if we want to advance into a near-field community e-commerce model? We need to complete the digitization iteration of the supply chain and community stores. Among them, the iteration difficulties of the digitization of the supply chain include: 1) realizing "digital agriculture", the low-level technology threshold is high, and the support of Agricultural Internet of things and large agricultural data is required; 2) realizing "the first kilometer" , large investment in warehouse and cold chain construction and heavy operation mode; 3) Realize fast link circulation and high requirements for channel dynamic sales capacity; The iterative difficulties of digitization of community stores are as follows: 1) multi-dimensional technology empowerment is the premise to realize store operation upgrading; 2) The key is to upgrade the purchase channel and optimize the selection service to meet the needs of one-stop and cost performance; 3) It is the guarantee to realize comprehensive deployment and efficient and continuous operation.
(4) What is the element layout of the main players currently entering the game for the e-commerce in the near-field community? From the perspective of base construction, origin warehouse, land sales warehouse, cold chain logistics, store infrastructure, store system, local promotion capacity and channel integration element layout, Alibaba / jd.com is fully covered, meituan / pinduoduo is the key layout, and meituan is now more advantageous in the enabling ecology of small downstream stores Focus on the construction of upstream base.
2. How to view the community group buying track under supervision—— Opportunities and challenges coexist
(1) At this stage, what is the development of community group buying policy, industry environment and competition pattern? 1) industry policy: tracing back to the origin as a whole, but affirming the commercial value of group buying and encouraging the digitization direction of the community remain unchanged; 2) business environment: industry clearing is accelerated, the market returns to rationality and provides refined operation soil; 3) competition pattern: the scale of players has been preliminarily expanded Form, the strong is always strong; It is less difficult for new entrants to realize regional "small and beautiful" operation, but it is more difficult to scale up.
(2) At this stage, what are the opportunities and challenges for users, leaders and commodity sides? 1) at the user level: the sinking market is active, the proportion of users in the main station is large, and the coincidence ratio between the overall and main station users is low; 2) at the head level: Supervision accelerates the transformation from "extensive operation with high commission" to "fine operation with reasonable commission" Transformation of; 3) Commodity level: at present, the share of brands is limited, but the growth rate is expected to be high, and there is a large space for fresh penetration in the sinking area.
(3) The spatial geometry of community group purchase market? Mainly based on the perspective of user penetration and category penetration, this paper forecasts the scale of purchase users, annual purchase frequency, piece unit price, customer unit price and category penetration respectively, and comes to the following conclusions: 1) if the current model is maintained, the neutral forecast will reach 1.33 trillion yuan in 2023; 2) if the near-field community e-commerce is advanced, the neutral forecast will be 2023 Up to 1.6 trillion yuan.
3. How to solve the current business dilemma—— Return to the essence of retail and finely polish the value chain of "people and goods yard"
(1) What is the essence of retail? How to return? The essence of retail is to create value for customers, transfer value to customers, maintain the relationship between the company and customers, and realize the true "user-centered"; the community group purchase industry needs to constantly polish the "people and goods yard" to return to its original intention Value chain, the troika cooperates to improve efficiency, superimposes organizational support, and realizes fine operation.
(2) How can UE be optimized in the future? How much room for optimization? 1) if the commodity side, logistics side and organization side remain unchanged, only the sales side reduces the head commission rate and user subsidy rate. If you want to become a regular OPM% after allocation, the head commission rate and user subsidy rate need to be reduced to at least 3% and 1% respectively, which is difficult to achieve, which is easy to cause the loss of head and user; 2) if sales The side, logistics side and organization side remain unchanged. Only the commodity side increases the unit price and gross profit margin of parts. If you want to become a regular OPM% after allocation, the unit price and gross profit margin of parts will rise to at least 11 yuan and 26 yuan respectively, and the low price advantage will disappear; 3) If the sales side, commodity side and organization side remain unchanged, only the logistics side reduces costs. If you want to become a regular OPM% before allocation, the total piece cost of the central warehouse + grid station needs to be reduced to 0.5 yuan / piece, which is unrealistic due to great practical resistance; 4) If the sales side, commodity side, logistics side and organization side make efforts to optimize, it is expected that the OPM% will continue to become positive in the future. After allocation under optimistic expectation, the OPM will reach 7%, neutral expectation will reach 0.6% and pessimistic expectation will reach - 6.8%.
(3) How about the business strategy iteration of the main players on the sales side? On the whole, BD empowerment is becoming more and more in-depth, and the head's strategy returns to rational and differentiated multi angle operation. Among them, the online multi scene and offline multi format service community of panning vegetables; meituan preferred BD and head are the main force to attract new customers, paying attention to the group purchase market in Colleges and universities; the main station of buying more vegetables has a large diversion, and the head plays a new role Weak; Xingsheng preferred to stop the city opening plan, replace the inefficient group and reset the BD assessment system in the near future.
(4) How about the business strategy iteration of the main players on the commodity side? On the whole, raising the price and gross profit is the core, continuously expanding the number of SKUs is the trend, and exploring private brands and white brand cooperation is an opportunity; among them, the source digital production and marketing of vegetables and fresh products is opened; meituan preferred to upgrade the buyer algorithm, double drive, and actively promote the direct purchase of agricultural fresh products; buy more vegetables, incubate more vegetables, and introduce white brands into bidding System and continuously improve quality control; Xingsheng's preferred categories have rich scenes, helping the sinking of second and third tier brands with high cost performance.
(5) How about the business strategy iteration of the main players on the logistics side? On the whole, cost reduction and efficiency increase are the key. Among them, four upgrades are realized for panning vegetables, and continuous transformation and optimization are carried out in the first and last kilometer; meituan preferred to continuously pilot the sorting to line / to group mode from the central warehouse to the grid station to enable the internal operation of the grid station; buy more vegetables, and pilot the differentiated grid station mode in each province to adapt to the demand Different business scenarios should be; Xingsheng has many innovation iterations, and the latest pilot self operated large grid station.
(6) How about the business strategy iteration of the main players in the organizational structure? On the whole, each family can not only maintain its advantages, but also break the inherent impression; among them, shopping for vegetables can upgrade "diversified governance" , the B-line Taobao system is open, and MMC business group is expected to benefit; Meituan preferred to integrate preferred / buy vegetables / fast donkey, set up a retail group, and improve the decision-making power of provinces and regions; Buy more vegetables and introduce the elimination system to accelerate development; Xingsheng prefers the combination of headquarters strategy empowerment and provincial autonomy, and the provinces operate according to maturity differences.
4. Risk tips: repeated epidemic risk outside China, national policy supervision risk, increased industry competition risk, less than expected risk of supply chain and warehouse distribution system construction, fresh food safety risk, less than expected risk of user stickiness, less than expected risk of grid station investment promotion progress, less than expected risk of group leader stickiness, accuracy of organizational structure / relevant business strategies Accuracy and representativeness of relevant conclusions of grassroots research.
