Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for three consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted in the short term, commodity prices remain high and global risk aversion remains. After the gem and Shenzhen composite index adjusted to a new low, the Shanghai index also ushered in this round of adjustment to a new low. Under the downward resonance of the index, there are still repeated in the short term. However, after the sharp decline, with the support of many parties, the market is getting closer and closer to the bottom of the stage
U.S. stocks fell overnight, European stock markets rebounded after opening sharply lower, global risk aversion remained high and inhibition remained. The opening of A-Shares in the morning was slightly strange, and the subsequent continuous decline actually showed that there were not many accidents. During the adjustment, the Shanghai index once fell below the integer mark of 3300 points, which not only ushered in the new low since the adjustment, but also fell below the phased low on July 28, 2021. The overall weakness can be seen.
On the disk, the market performance was chaotic all day. Forenoon, almost all the fall, the only bright spot is the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rare monthly report boosted, Baijiu sector has been shown. But all other sectors fell, almost another day of general decline. During the rebound of the index in the afternoon, the semiconductor and other technology sectors changed. Obviously, these varieties with high prosperity in the rebound may be those with high capital attention in the next oversold rebound, which can be tracked appropriately.
From last Thursday's high opening and low going to today's low opening and falling, the market has been falling continuously, and this sharp fall is the catharsis of emotion itself. Moreover, during the decline in the morning, there was a panic market. From the previous decline, the sharp decline is often a sign of accelerating the bottom, and the issuance of panic disk also shows that the phased bottom of the market is not far away. In addition, from a technical point of view, there was a deviation from the bottom after the new low of the Shanghai index, which also indicates that the phased bottom is not far away. Therefore, after today's sharp decline, the market may rebound in the short term, but the strength and sustainability remain to be seen.
However, it needs to be clear that there is still uncertainty in the overseas market, so even if there are rebound changes and technical backwardness here, we still need to pay attention to the repetition of the index and even the possibility of bottoming again in the future. After all, emotional inhibition has continued, so we should be prepared to continue.
Of course, we are not pessimistic about the market as a whole. Especially after continuous adjustment, the current A-share valuation level is below 50%. With the support of steady growth and the opening of the easing cycle, there is a foundation for the overall improvement of the market. Once the mood slows down, the rebound is still worth looking forward to. This round of continuous adjustment has released most risks. With the support of valuation retreat and fundamentals, the current allocation value of multiple sectors is prominent, which is a good time to consider strategic allocation. For radical investors, withdrawal can continue to consider batch low absorption. For steady investors, they can also wait and see with light positions and patiently wait for the market to stabilize.