Event: on December 28, mutual treasure announced that it would no longer absorb new members and would stop operation on January 28, 2022.
comment:
The mutual aid program has significantly improved the awareness of customer protection, and mutual treasure has a large number of existing customers. While providing participants with initial protection, the mutual aid platform is more important to enhance customers' protection awareness and stimulate commercial insurance participation needs. 1) Through the "mass claims trial panel", participants can participate in the judgment of disputed claims cases, enlarge the implied odds of extreme risk events in customers' hearts, and stimulate customers' insurance needs; 2) Since the launch of mutual treasure at the end of 2018, the user scale has increased rapidly, with more than 100 million people at the peak and about 75 million members at present; 3) Historically, the per capita allocation of mutual treasure has continued to improve. According to its operation report, the annual per capita allocation in 2019 and 2020 is 29 yuan and 91 yuan respectively. We expect that the per capita allocation since this year (as of the first phase in December) is about 152.1 yuan.
Strengthening the "licensing" orientation is the main reason for the wave of mutual assistance shutdown. Since the beginning of 2021, 10 mutual aid platforms such as meituan mutual aid, waterdrop mutual aid and easy mutual aid have been shut down one after another. This mutual treasure is the last large mutual aid platform to be shut down. In December 2020, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the measures for the supervision of Internet insurance business, clarifying the licensing requirements and prohibiting non insurance institutions from carrying out insurance business. In October 2021, the CBRC issued the notice on further regulating the life insurance business of insurance institutions on the Internet, which once again strengthened and improved the supervision of life insurance business on the Internet. The regulatory authorities continue to strengthen the "licensed" orientation of financial business, standardize market order, prevent business risks, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of insurance consumers. We expect that strengthening the "licensed" orientation is the main reason for this wave of mutual assistance shutdown.
It is expected that the protection needs of some customers will be transformed through commercial insurance. After the closure of mutual treasure, considering that most participants in the mutual aid plan are young customers without commercial insurance, the protection needs of some participants will be met through traditional insurance, bringing increment to commercial insurance. At present, mutual insurance has conducted customer diversion on the home page. Based on the characteristics of customers, 1-year or 20 / 30-year serious illness insurance is recommended as an alternative. Take health Fu · serious disease No. 1 of PICC for example. It can guarantee 120 kinds of serious diseases (100000 for diagnosis), 20 kinds of moderate diseases (40000 for diagnosis) and 40 kinds of mild diseases (20000 for diagnosis). Men aged 25-29 only need to pay 80.88 yuan and 78 yuan / year respectively in the first / subsequent years. We assume that 25% of mutual treasure customers have completed the transformation, which is expected to bring about an increase of 2.5-3 billion yuan to PICC.
Investment suggestion: the regulatory authorities continue to strengthen the licensing orientation and benefit the regular army. We are optimistic about large insurance companies with the quality advantage of offline agents, and recommend AIA and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) .
Risk tip: the capital market fluctuated sharply, the long-term interest rate fell faster than expected, and the improvement of the liability side of insurance companies was slower than expected
