Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
The product structure was continuously optimized, the markets inside and outside the province were steadily promoted, and the "buy" rating was maintained
The company held the 2022 dealer conference to make plans for the future development direction. Due to the higher target of blue and white series and more accurate cost investment, we maintain the profit forecast for 2021 and raise the profit forecast for 2022-2023. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2021-2023 will be RMB 5.72 billion (unchanged) respectively 80.7 (+8.2) billion yuan, 107.7 (+12.9) billion yuan, EPS 4.69 yuan (unchanged), 6.61 (+0.67) yuan and 8.82 (+0.97) yuan respectively, the current price corresponding to PE is 69.5, 49.3, 36.9 times, the company as a leading Baijiu liquor, the brand value continues to improve in the future, the company's product upgrading and national expansion potential is still enough to maintain the "buy" rating.
Take the brand strategy as the core value of the enterprise, strive to develop the blue and white strategy, and continuously optimize the product structure
At the dealer conference, the company proposed that Qinghua Fen Liquor is the inevitable choice for the revival of Fen Liquor and the key to improving brand value and solving contradictions. In 2022, the company will vigorously promote the implementation of assessment and incentive policies, focus on resources, ensure the rapid improvement of three indicators, do a good job in the marketing of Qinghua Fen Liquor and the cultivation of consumer groups, so as to make the dealers of Qinghua Fen Liquor profitable Promising. The demand for blue and white 20 is strong, and the blue and white revival version has initially stood firm. It is expected that the blue and white series, especially high-end products, will have a bright performance in 2022, and the company's profits may exceed expectations.
Intensive cultivation of large base market, force the markets in East and South China, and further nationalization
In 2022, the company will deepen the channel layout and accelerate the nationalization. Among them, the large base Market in the Yellow River Basin is intensively cultivated. Focus on resources to realize the rapid development of East China market; In the past, the market in South China was relatively weak. In the future, we will increase consumer interaction, improve terminal coverage, lay the foundation in one year, rise to a higher level in two years and make big strides in three years, so as to create a new growth pole outside Fenjiu province. We believe that the company has a good foundation for nationalization, and there is still much room for development in the future.
Pay attention to the market order, improve the internal strength of the sales team, optimize the dealer structure and achieve long-term development
In 2022, the company should make good use of the sustainable development concept of channel battle, price defense war and lasting war of consumption cultivation, optimize the dealer team, and develop a high-quality dealer team with excellent merchants doing addition, sitting merchants doing subtraction, group buying doing multiplication and big merchants doing division; Adhere to the three separation principles of "price, fee and profit" and maintain a healthy market ecology. It can be seen that the company continues to improve its internal governance and operation, and external marketing focuses more on long-term development, which has become an important guarantee for driving the company through the cycle and sustainable growth.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected
