Market changes
On March 7, the market fell sharply, of which the Shanghai index fell 2.17% and the gem index fell 4.30%. The industry level generally fell, with food and beverage, electronics, household appliances, social services and power equipment leading the decline.
The delay of geopolitical conflict has restrained overseas risk appetite, and the rapid rise of oil price has triggered stagflation concerns
The main reasons for the sharp decline in the market today are: ① the situation in Russia and Ukraine is delayed beyond expectations, and the risk appetite of the global market is restrained. It has been 11 days since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, and the duration is much longer than the previously expected "blitz". The continuing geopolitical conflict has led to significant adjustments in global markets: the Russian stock market has been suspended since it fell more than 30% in a single day at the end of February; The three major US stock indexes fell for two consecutive days on March 3 and 4; On March 7, the Nikkei and South Korea composite indexes in the Asia Pacific market fell by more than 2%, and the Hang Seng Index fell sharply by 3.87%. Risk aversion in the global market has heated up and transmitted rapidly, and China's A-share risk appetite has been restrained. ② The surge in oil prices combined with the rise in the price of raw materials and the increase in inflationary pressure have led to the rise of stagflation concerns. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, most European and American countries have imposed sanctions on it. Today, the US House of Representatives plans to propose a bill to prohibit Russian oil imports, abolish normal trade relations and raise tariffs on Russian imported goods. Energy prices continued to soar, with Brent crude oil prices peaking at $139 / barrel on March 7. Moreover, the prices of upstream energy, metals and other raw materials have risen comprehensively at the same time. The price of lithium has risen to 2.79 million yuan / ton, the price of nickel has exceeded 200000 yuan / ton, and the sharp rise of non-ferrous metals has an impact on the manufacturing and sales of middle and downstream. The market is worried that the global economy will fall into stagflation. ③ The central bank significantly recovered the liquidity of open market operation, and the overvalued sector was restrained. At the end of the month and after the "two sessions", the central bank began to significantly recover the liquidity previously released. From March 7 to 11, a total of 380 billion reverse repos expired. Among them, 300 billion yuan was due on the 7th, the central bank invested only 10 billion yuan, and the net return of 290 billion yuan on the same day was large. The substantial return of short-term funds has restrained the high valuation sector.
The 5.5% economic growth target sounded the clarion call for the full implementation of policies. After the emotional disturbance subsided, we can still act actively
The continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the approach of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March have increased market volatility. However, under the background of the national "two sessions" finalizing the economic growth target of 5.5%, the policy has entered a period of full force: the loose monetary policy continues, and there is still room for interest rate and reserve requirements reduction; The fiscal policy is in advance, with sufficient strength and moderate pace; The real estate regulation policy will continue to warm the tone, and the marginal easing will continue. The all-round support of the policy will significantly hedge the impact of the geographical situation on A-Shares and boost the market risk appetite. Under the comprehensive environment of loose policy, gradual economic recovery and abundant overall liquidity, the inhibitory factors of overseas risk appetite are expected to gradually weaken. Recently, the market has responded to the unexpected situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates on March 17. The probability of continuous and rapid decline in the market is very low. When the emotional disturbance subsides, We can still actively look for structural opportunities.
Balanced allocation in response to emotional disturbance, pay attention to the stable growth of cost-effective improvement in the short term, continue to layout the growth in the medium term, and pull out the valuation market in the third stage of growth
In the process of wrestling between the all-round overweight expectation of stable growth policy and overseas risk suppression factors, the market fluctuation will be amplified. It is suggested to allocate it in a balanced manner to cope with the fluctuation. Under the joint action of the two sessions to strengthen the expectation of steady growth and the inhibition of overseas risk factors, the short-term cost performance of the steady growth chain has increased, and the market in the third stage of growth will continue to be arranged in the medium term. Overall, the configuration is carried out around three main lines and two themes.
Main line 1: a stable growth chain with strengthened logic and improved cost performance, focusing on new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, steel, urban pipe network transformation, new power grid construction, UHV, transmission and distribution, as well as banks with frequent policy warm air and expected improvement of real estate and asset quality; Main line 2: continue to layout the market in the third stage of growth. Specifically, we can focus on the strong growth main line represented by dual carbon and semiconductor, as well as national defense, military industry, communication and computer with valuation diffusion potential; Main line 3: continuous recovery of consumption, recovery of service consumption, continued attention to travel chains such as airport, tourism, catering and leisure, as well as the pharmaceutical sector with short-term oversold rebound; Grasp the opportunities related to dairy products, planting industry and chemical fertilizer with smoother price rise in the medium and long term; In terms of themes, we will continue to pay attention to topics related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Risk tips
There are deviations in policy interpretation; Risk Spillover of geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations.
