The US dollar index continued to rise, the interest rate spread between China and the United States significantly widened, Ted interest rate spread continued to widen, and China’s capital was loose as a whole. Last week (2022820220304), the US dollar index continued to rise, with a large range. As of March 2, 2022, the net long position fell. The interest rate gap between China and the United States widened significantly, the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds fell significantly, and inflation expectations continued to rise. For overseas, Ted’s interest rate spread has widened significantly, which is at the historical central level as a whole, and overseas liquidity has gradually tightened; For China, inter-bank funds are generally loose, liquidity stratification has eased, and term interest margin (10y-1y) continues to narrow. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat of most industries fell, among which the trading heat and volatility of coal, construction, power and public utilities were at a relatively high level in history; In terms of research, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computers, household appliances, medicine, building materials, nonferrous metals, new electricity and other sectors rank first.
The northward allocation sector has obviously returned, and the trading sector is still selling. Last week (2022820220304), the northbound allocation market bought a net 13.558 billion yuan, and the northbound trading market sold A-Shares net 8.145 billion yuan. It is worth mentioning that since January 25, 2022 (as of March 4), Beishang trading, which is sensitive to global liquidity, has sold a total of 45.975 billion yuan. On the day, the last allocation continued to buy a shares, while the northward trading continued to sell a shares. In the industry, the consensus between northbound trading and configuration is to net buy nonferrous metals, electronics, transportation, real estate, steel and other industries, and net sell computers, food and beverage, automobiles, non-bank and other industries. In terms of style, the northward configuration / trading sector chooses to buy the large market value sector at the same time and sell the small market growth / value sector at the same time, while there are differences in other sectors. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the allocation board bought Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 743 million yuan and 136 million yuan respectively, and sold Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 319 million yuan. In terms of market value, last week, the allocation disk mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the light industry sector. From the top 20 stocks bought most in the past week, the north up collocation sector mainly buys colored (copper, aluminum), power, photovoltaic and Baijiu sectors, while the North trading market mainly buys new energy (lithium battery, photovoltaic), electronic (semiconductor, consumer electronics) sector.
The activity of the two financial institutions has declined, which is equivalent to the level in January 2022. Last week (2022820220304), Liangrong net sold 1.418 billion yuan, mainly Buying petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, automobile, food and beverage and other sectors, and mainly selling new power, construction, electric power, nonferrous metals, banking and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchase in commerce and retail, consumer service, transportation, textile and clothing, military industry, communication and other sectors increased month on month. Among them, except for the consumer service sector, the proportion of financing purchase in the above sectors is below the historical center. In terms of style, Liangrong net sells the large market growth / value and small market value sectors, and net buys other styles.
Public offering positions fell slightly, Jimin continued to “copy the bottom”, and the broad-based ETF mainly held by institutions began to be net redeemed. Last week (2022820220304), the A-share position of the active partial share fund fell slightly. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its position in electronics, chemical industry, automobile, computer, food and beverage, household appliances, Dianxin, petroleum and petrochemical, and mainly reduced its position in medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, consumer service, transportation, nonferrous metals, light industry, coal and other sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by individuals were net subscribed, which means that Jimin may still choose the “bottom reading” fund. Among them, ETFs related to finance, real estate, consumption, technology, cycle and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to military industry, new energy, medicine and other sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy some sectors such as science and technology and consumption, and sell the pharmaceutical sector at the same time, while there are differences in financial and real estate, cycle, new energy, military industry and other sectors. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys oil and petrochemical, transportation and some consumption sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought electronics, nonferrous metals, real estate, steel, transportation, building materials and other sectors. On the whole, all kinds of investors have a relatively high degree of consensus in the machinery and electronics sectors, followed by the home appliances, communications, petroleum and petrochemical, steel and other sectors. It is worth mentioning that at present, active partial equity funds choose to sell financial real estate and some cyclical sectors, and increase their positions in the growth sectors represented by electronics, food and beverage and new energy, but the result may not be “as expected”, while long-term funds represented by northward allocation still choose to buy banks, real estate sectors and nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum), coal, petroleum, petrochemical Periodic sectors represented by steel, etc.
Risk warning: measurement error
