Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (002196)
China's leading driver motor, flat wire motor capacity accelerated expansion. From micro motor to new energy motor, and then to integrated electric drive system, Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) has successfully transformed the new energy vehicle industry. Since engaging in the new energy vehicle business in 2012, Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) drive motor capacity has been gradually released. According to the company's announcement, the output of drive motor has reached 500000 units in 2021, and flat wire motor has also begun to enter mass production. According to the company's announcement, Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) has started a new project with an annual output of 1 million drive motors. It is expected that the sales revenue will increase by 2.5 billion after the project is completed. The company's performance declined in the first two years due to the covid-19 epidemic and changes in the industry's product structure. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased steadily and the demand for motors increased gradually. As China's mainstream motor supplier, Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) has a strong recovery in performance and rapid growth in revenue.
The drive motor has a wide space, and the flat wire motor is the general trend. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales and the improvement of the number and power of single motor, the medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle drive motor market is expected to expand rapidly. We predict that the medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle drive motor market space is expected to reach 39.5 billion yuan and CAGR will reach 72.67% in 2025. Compared with the traditional round wire motor, flat wire motor has the advantages of high efficiency, high power density, good heat dissipation, good NVH performance, small weight and volume, which is more in line with the development direction of new energy motor. However, it puts forward higher requirements for motor enterprises in terms of technology, scale and capital, and further raises the entry threshold of flat wire motor industry. The market share of new energy motor is expected to continue to focus on enterprises with technical advantages, first mover advantages and scale advantages.
Drive motor is a new growth point, and the traditional business is developing steadily. 1) Drive motor business: the company grasps the high growth of new energy market and the general trend of high-power and miniaturization of new energy drive motors, actively arranges new technologies such as flat wire motor, oil-cooled motor and 800V high-voltage motor, and doubles the value of single vehicle. At the same time, customers also expand from SAIC Wuling, Geely and other low-end customers to Xiaopeng, Weilai Great wall and other new car making forces and strong autonomy are expected to expand more high-quality customers and open up new growth space by relying on the advantages of technology and scale in the future. 2) Traditional business: the performance of sewing motor is stable, the production line is transferred to Vietnam, and the profitability is expected to be improved; Micro and special motors such as electric tool motor and wiper motor continue to expand downstream customers, and the performance is expected to rise steadily; With the implementation of the national VI emission standard for heavy-duty diesel vehicles in July 2021, China's Automobile standard has fully entered the national VI era. According to the company's announcement, the company's forward-looking national VI products have won orders, and will continue to enter new main engine factory customers in the future, and the automobile electronics business is expected to rebound at the bottom; Benefiting from the strong demand for smart home in the downstream and the accelerated concentration of home appliance industry, intelligent controller is expected to continue to grow.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.725 billion, RMB 2.795 billion and RMB 4.751 billion respectively, and the net profit will be RMB 20 million, RMB 175 million and RMB 319 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.04, RMB 0.35 and RMB 0.64/share respectively. At present, the corresponding PE share price is 277.6, 32.2 and 17.6 times. At present, the company is at the performance inflection point, the traditional business is rising steadily, and the drive motor is expected to become a new growth point. It is covered for the first time. It is given a "Buy-A" rating, and the six-month target price is 15 yuan / share.
Risk warning: the sales volume of new energy is lower than the expected risk; Risk that customer expansion is less than expected; The penetration of flat wire motor is less than the expected risk; Assumptions are less than expected risks.
