Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: this week (2.28-3.4), the port price of power coal was the same as last week, with 940 yuan / ton in the may daily report. Overseas coal prices rose sharply in Australia and South Africa and remained flat in Europe. The coal price of origin is the same as that of last week. The annual price is 962 yuan / ton, down to a certain extent from last year. The port inventory continues to be destocked.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: demand picked up this week, and coking coal prices rebounded slightly. The port's main coking coal 4 daily closed at 2930 yuan / ton, up 3.53% weekly, the price of imported coking coal rose 4.96% weekly, and the import price difference narrowed slightly. Injection coal prices were flat. On the demand side, the coke price rose 7.02% during the week, and the coke oven operating rate continued to rise. Steel prices increased by 1.50% this week, and the operating rate of blast furnace decreased slightly. The storage of coking coal and injection coal in each link remained at a high level, but it was de converted in the week.
Equity view: the sector index increased by 9.95% this week, ranking first in the industry, with only Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) falling. The performance of coking coal stocks is relatively high and underestimated, which is in line with the expected high performance of coking coal stocks. A series of recent meetings of the national development and Reform Commission have reflected the current tight relationship between supply and demand, which has changed the market's expectation of coal performance in 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the rise of the sector has been mainly driven by the improvement of valuation, which also reflects the increasing market preference for undervalued and deterministic cyclical stocks. From the perspective of fundamentals, thermal coal will enter the off-season in mid and late March, and the market is worried about whether thermal coal will fall sharply seasonally. We believe that the possibility is low. On the one hand, the current supply release speed is relatively slow, the inventory continues to go, and the low inventory level is expected to support the price. On the other hand, the overseas coal price continues to rise sharply, and the high overseas coal price also limits the import volume, which is conducive to the smooth operation of China's coal price. With regard to the two sessions, the market is more concerned about the ways and methods of stimulating domestic demand in the future and the counter cyclical regulation of infrastructure construction. According to Premier Li Keqiang's government work report on the 5th, China's economic growth plan in 2022 is about 5.5%. On the investment side, infrastructure investment will be carried out moderately ahead of schedule, and steady growth should be put in a more prominent position. The relevant description of economic growth slightly exceeds the market expectation, which is conducive to continue to correct the pessimistic expectation on the demand side in the early stage of the market. In addition, the general secretary of Xi Jinping once again stressed the status of coal as the basic energy at the Inner Mongolia meeting of the National People's Congress on the 5th. To achieve the goal of "double carbon", we can't engage in sports "carbon reduction". It is expected that the restrictions on coal consumption may be loosened in the future. Under the background of steady growth, the repair of sector valuation may be accelerated. It is suggested to pay attention to coking coal stocks with high flexibility and undervalued targets with strong certainty, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident, but the low-grade interest margin quantile is differentiated from the medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it may be the best policy to choose the right opportunity. For exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: policy risk; Strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
