Core ideas of this week
Event: on March 5, Premier Li Keqiang proposed in the government work report to encourage local governments to carry out green smart appliances to the countryside and trade in the old for the new.
We believe that under the background of the weakening of the pulling effect of exports and investment on the economy at the present stage, expanding domestic demand is an effective way to stabilize the large fluctuation of foreign demand caused by changes in the external environment such as supply chain and trade disputes, and plays a ballast role in stabilizing China's economic growth. Among them, household appliances, as a kind of rigid demand category in household consumption, encourage green smart appliances to go to the countryside and trade in old ones for new ones, which has very important social and industrial significance: first, according to the current time point, the last round of large-scale home appliances to the countryside has been over 10 years, and the service life of household electrical products mostly ranges from 8 to 10 years, Therefore, most rural household electrical appliances have reached the period of renewal. At this time, promoting green smart appliances to the countryside basically conforms to the household electrical appliance renewal needs of rural residents, which will help to truly implement this measure and improve the quality of life of rural residents. At the same time, it will not support the consumption demand of rural household electrical appliances too much; Second, the middle and low-end products in the last round of household appliances to the countryside accounted for a relatively high proportion. The replacement of green smart appliances will help to promote the early achievement of the "double carbon" policy from the residents' side; Third, the home appliance industry is capital intensive and personnel intensive, and the industrial chain is long. By encouraging and supporting the consumption of home appliance products, it will help to promote the achievement of the "six guarantees and six stabilities" policy and support the development of advantageous industries.
From the perspective of investment, 1) in terms of white electricity, after the last round of household appliances to the countryside, the ownership of refrigerators and washing machines in rural areas of China is high, and there is still much room to improve the ownership level of air conditioners. Therefore, this round of activities is conducive to white electricity leaders with significant competitive advantages in product upgrading and sinking channel layout. It is suggested to pay attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ; 2) In terms of kitchen electricity, the past special housing structure and long-term use habits in rural areas make the penetration rate of kitchen electricity in rural areas far lower than that in cities, so there is a large room for improvement. In recent years, with the increase of rural residents' disposable income (improving living conditions and housing structure) and the urban living habits brought back by migrant workers, the acceptance and awareness of kitchen electricity in rural areas have been greatly improved at the demand level, and the penetration of kitchen electricity in rural areas is expected to accelerate. It is suggested to focus on the leading product power and brand power For the traditional kitchen appliance leaders Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , which have sub brand layout in the sinking channel, and the integrated stove industry, which originated in tier 3-4 cities and has good category recognition and consumption foundation, it is suggested to focus on the integrated stove leaders Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) ; 3) In terms of small household appliances, compared with 30-40 small household appliances in overseas households, the number of small household appliances in China's rural areas is less than 5, with great growth potential. In addition, the value of single products of small household appliances is generally not high, and the threshold for new products is low. It is expected that the popularization of small household appliances in rural areas is expected to accelerate. It is suggested to pay attention to the three giants of traditional small household appliances - Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) and Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , as well as the emerging small household appliance leader Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) , which originated from Taobao e-commerce, active layout pinduoduo and other social e-commerce.
Plate view
White electricity sector: the main support for white electricity repair comes from: 1) the pressure on the high base caused by the epidemic is gradually weakened, 2) the price rise trend of bulk commodities is alleviated, 3) the rise of shipping prices is stopped and stabilized, and 4) the trend of high-end consumption is gradually becoming. However, it is still plagued by long-term factors: 1) macroeconomic downturn; 2) Weakening of real estate pull, etc. In contrast, in the short term, the supporting factors have a direct and effective impact on the operating results of white power enterprises, and the short-term profitability of white power leaders can be repaired.
In the medium and long term, China's white power market has gradually transformed into a stock competitive market dominated by renewal demand. Under this background, we are more optimistic about the deep barriers built by white power leaders in terms of brand, channel, R & D, management and other underlying basic capabilities. We believe that in the continuous innovation category of white power, we can rely on accumulated advantages to achieve the strength of the strong. At the same time, the white power leader with excellent product power, mature supply chain and rich experience in overseas operation has the opportunity to improve the penetration of overseas market, and the overseas market space is broad.
Kitchen electricity sector: the overall demand of kitchen electricity sector is relatively weak, but the performance of sub sectors is differentiated. It is suggested to pay attention to the integrated stove sub sector with low penetration and high growth. We believe that the penetration rate of integrated stoves at this stage is still low, while the existing stock housing market is large and has sufficient penetration space. At the same time, after the early consumer education of integrated stoves (especially, after the four leading enterprises took the lead in listing in 2020, Pinxuan strengthened to further improve the popularity of integrated stoves), the vigorous development in recent two years has promoted some leading enterprises to complete the accumulation from one to ten. With the construction of channels and the increasing improvement of product categories, and referring to the development track of traditional kitchen electric faucets, the leapfrog development of integrated stoves from 10 to 100 can be expected.
Cleaning appliances: under the industry characteristics of low stock and demand determined by supply, the frequent emergence of new products plays a great role in promoting the penetration of floor sweepers and floor washers Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) launched the new self-cleaning floor sweeper U10 with mop and floor washer G10, Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) launched the new floor sweeper X1 with self-cleaning + self collecting + self drying, and Yunjing's second-generation new floor sweeper J2 with self-cleaning + self changing + self drying. These new products have significantly improved product performance or industrial design compared with the past, which is in line with the current consumption upgrading trend, It is expected to further stimulate terminal sales. At the same time, the rapid and large-scale volume of floor washing machine has also attracted the rapid follow-up of Midea, lake, Jiuyang, Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) and other enterprises. More enterprises will launch relevant products in the first half of 22 years, and the high outlook and certainty of floor washing machine and other emerging cleaning electrical appliances are strong.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the white power leaders Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , which continue to optimize the competition pattern and whose profitability is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year.
It is suggested to pay attention to the integrated stove leader Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which comprehensively promotes the improvement of multidimensional organizational capabilities such as products, brands, channels and management, the traditional kitchen electric faucet Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , which is expected to launch new integrated stove products in the first half of the year, and the integrated stove leader Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which continuously optimizes the product structure and steadily expands multiple channels.
It is suggested to pay attention to the sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leader Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) with outstanding comprehensive advantages and building the second growth pole with the help of intelligent life appliances, as well as the sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leader Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , which has deep technical barriers and rapid expansion of overseas channels.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth is less than expected, resulting in the decline of residents' purchasing power; The severe regulation of real estate has a negative impact on the demand for downstream household appliances; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the resumption of production and work.
