Key investment points:
Baijiu: overlay in the off-season, plagued by epidemic problems, and channel confidence has been temporarily frustrated. Baijiu price performance is weak. This week, the COVID-19 epidemic continued to show a spotlight spread. Shenzhen's epidemic intensified, and some local new cases were added to the city. The impact on the Baijiu channel business was also affected. Some regional distributors were shipping goods at a low price for the return of funds, resulting in a slight decline in the price of mainstream hard currency products. The price of Moutai's original box Moutai flew 3140 yuan / bottle this Sunday, down 30 yuan / bottle last week. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) puwu was priced at 960 yuan / bottle, down 10 yuan / bottle month on month. We expect that low-priced goods mainly exist in the markets of Guangdong and Henan. Due to the impact of the epidemic in the Spring Festival in Henan market, the dynamic sales of sauce and wine development products and some series of products are blocked, resulting in the occupation of dealers' funds, while the consumption scenes such as catering and gathering in Guangdong, especially in Shenzhen, are blocked or the main reason for the shipment of large businesses in South China. In this regard, we believe that the impact of the market has caused damage to the market, resulting in the sector's callback. Under the background of steady growth of the country, the steady price measures of the liquor factory are being promoted step by step, and the recovery of Baijiu consumption will drive the recovery of the Baijiu price. The high-end Baijiu has a strong competition pattern, significant trade barriers, and high growth certainty. The current sector valuation has strong support. Luzhou flavor liquor Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 22 years PE is less than 25X, and the overall sector valuation has also dropped for nearly 5 years, with a long-term investment value. We continue to be optimistic about Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , and the main line of sub high-end old liquor, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Fenjiu which continues to increase rapidly; We are optimistic about the upgrading rate of Huijiu, and the edge of sujiu Yanghe is improving (Dream Blue M6 + continuous volume, and the power recovery period of the new version of sky blue).
Beer: the marginal impact of aluminum cost rise is limited, and we are actively optimistic about the transmission of price increase before the peak season. The recent sharp rise in aluminum prices under the influence of geopolitics has triggered concerns about the pressure on beer costs. From the cost side, the beer industry has basically completed the annual / semi annual price locking of barley, and the price locking of packaging materials such as glass bottles and aluminum cans for about 1-2 quarters. From the semi annual dimension, the sharp rise in aluminum prices will not have a great impact on the cost side in the short term. From the marginal slope, glass bottles account for a large proportion of the cost of raw materials, and the price of glass bottles has fallen to a low level. Aluminum accounts for about 10% - 15% of the cost of raw materials (depending on the canning rate of different enterprises). It is estimated that the upward pressure on the cost in 22 years will be slower than that in 21 years. The sales volume of beer in the whole year is expected to be higher than that in the previous 22 months, and the sales volume of beer in the whole year is expected to be higher than that in the previous 22 months, which is still 1-2 year. From the perspective of ton price, the major beer enterprises in 21h2 announced statistics that the price increase effect is expected to be reflected in 22q2. In the whole year of 22, we are still optimistic about the rise of gross profit margin under the smooth transmission of price increase. From the perspective of high-end, China Resources beer / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) has set relatively high growth requirements for the sales volume of more than 8 yuan, and the high-end trend of beer is expected to be further strengthened in 22 years. On the whole, we believe that the beer industry is expected to continue to enjoy the price increase dividend in 22 years. The ton price of the industry will increase by about 5% - 7%, and the marginal upward slope of ton cost will slow down, which is expected to be about 3% - 4%. Before the peak season in April, we should actively look forward to the layout opportunities of the beer sector.
Condiments: price increase transmission + inventory digestion, and the recovery background supports the overvalued value. Looking forward to 2022, the recovery of demand is the general trend, the cost is expected to decline at a high level, the channel inventory is good, the marginal impact of community group purchase is weakened, and the industry recovery is the main tone. Looking back on 2021, Li Jinji, Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) , Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , etc. followed the implementation of Haitian price increase. According to the follow-up before the Spring Festival, Haitian's price increase has made good progress. The terminal price support has been basically completed in some regions before the festival, and the transmission in some regions is relatively slow, and the price support needs to be implemented. Due to the late time window of price increase of other brands, it is expected to complete the transmission of price system in succession, and it is still necessary to continuously track the implementation of price increase. In terms of inventory, some companies took the initiative to remove inventory in 2021. Before the price increase, the industry inventory has tended to be benign. Subsequently, under the influence of the price increase policy and Spring Festival stock, dealers hoard goods in advance, and the rise of inventory is a normal phenomenon. After the driving of dynamic sales in peak season, the overall is expected to gradually fall back to a benign level. In terms of valuation, the valuation level of condiments is still high, which we believe contains the expectation of epidemic repair. After the phased impact of community group buying slowed down, the suppression of the epidemic on the fundamentals of condiments may be the main factor, including the suppression of consumption demand at the catering end and the suppression of consumption power at the residents' end; However, the epidemic will eventually end, and the negative impact does not have long-term sustainability. It is difficult for the condiment industry to have a large impact similar to that brought by 2021h1 community group purchase, and the fundamental repair logic is still in place.
Snack food: it is suggested to pay attention to the performance recovery of high-quality leaders. In order to cope with the pressure of rising costs, fragmented channels and weak end consumption, the company in the leisure food sector has actively adjusted the investment of products, channels and expenses since 21q3, and has achieved preliminary results. The performance disclosure period of 2021 annual report is approaching, and the performance of Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) performance forecast is bright. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance improvement of leisure food leaders. The recent dot epidemic is still disturbed. If the follow-up epidemic is effectively prevented and controlled, the expected improvement of residents is expected to promote the recovery of consumption power and help the steady recovery of leisure food sector.
Frozen baking: temporary cost pressure, not afraid of long-term growth. The situation in Ukraine has a certain impact on the price of raw materials. The price of palm oil rises. The price trend of raw materials in the later stage is worthy of attention, which may affect the profit performance of the company. We believe that Ligao's growth is not afraid to worry. Looking forward to 22 years, the supply side capacity will continue to fall, and the sales will gradually get rid of the capacity constraints; On the channel side, except Sam, the company will conduct diversified layout in baking and catering channels; On the product side, there is still great room for improvement in cassava and frozen cake; The pressure of rising costs and rising profits can be hedged.
Investment suggestion: Baijiu sector: the value of high-end liquor is obvious, the secondary high-end is still in the upward cycle, adhere to the growth leader, the real estate Baijiu benefited from epidemic situation, and focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) / Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) . Beer sector: high end continues to accelerate, short-term sales fluctuations do not change the upward trend of performance, focusing on Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) / China Resources beer, etc. Condiment sector: focus on Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) / Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) / Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) / Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) , etc. Dairy products sector: focus on Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) / Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) / Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) / New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) / Mengniu Dairy industry, etc. Snack food sector: we should still focus on the main line of growth, pay attention to channel driven, and focus on Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) / Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) / Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) / Zhou black duck / Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , etc. Focus on the rise of artificial dough and baking cost. Special liquor and beverage sector: pre mixed liquor and energy drinks are good tracks in Changpo, focusing on Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (improved quarterly) / Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (exceeding the expectation in the annual report), etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Food safety issues; Intensified market competition; The price increase was less than expected
