Events
1. High oil price:
Under the catalysis of global supply and demand tension and geopolitics, the international oil price continued to rise sharply. As of the weekend, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures reached about US $118 / barrel, which has entered the ultra-high oil price range in history.
2. The upper limit of coal raw material procurement cost is limited:
In December, the national development and Reform Commission released the draft for comments on the signing and performance plan of the coal long-term association. The adjustment range of 5500k thermal coal is 550850 yuan, of which the benchmark price of underground coal long-term association is 700 yuan / ton. Since then, relevant statements such as maintaining the stable operation of coal prices have been issued for many times. At present, despite the tight supply and demand of coal, the upper limit of coal raw material purchase price still faces certain rigid restrictions.
Brief comment
The price difference of main products of coal chemical enterprises has expanded, and the main performance has strong robustness
Coal chemical industry (or coal chemical industry) is an alternative route of petrochemical industry (or oil chemical industry), which can produce most of the products that can be produced by the oil head route. When the oil price rises, the cost of the oil head route usually rises and is transmitted downward to chemical products through the industrial chain. When the oil price is high, the above transmission may not be smooth. Excluding the gains from inventory appreciation, the profit margin of the main business is damaged; However, the situation of coal head route is different. On the one hand, the price of product end is rising or at least stable. On the other hand, the price of raw coal does not necessarily follow the rise of oil price, and its profit margin tends to expand. On the other hand, nowadays, the coal purchase price of coal enterprises is subject to relatively rigid restrictions, which further strengthens the robustness of their performance. Taking Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) as an example, the quarterly average prices and spreads of major coal chemical products are listed in Figure 1 below. The red cell represents the month on month increase and the gray cell represents the month on month decrease. It can be seen that in terms of price difference, the current level (as of March 4) is mixed compared with 21q4. Depending on the product supply and demand pattern, there is not much concern about the decline of performance for the corresponding enterprises. In addition, under the background of rising oil prices, the prices of chemicals are expected to continue to rise, and the mainstream coal chemical Futures (olefins, urea, methanol, etc.) are expected to rise, while the subsequent coal price control is expected to remain, that is, the price difference of mainstream coal chemical products is still expected to expand.
High quality enterprises in the industry have sufficient growth logic, both short-term flexibility and long-term value
In addition to short-term performance flexibility, attention should be paid to the long-term value of high-quality coal chemical enterprises. The characteristics of coal chemical industry determine that the performance differentiation of enterprises in the industry will be very obvious, which means that for high-quality enterprises in the industry, on the one hand, they can rely on cost barriers to maintain profitability at the worst of the industry, on the other hand, they can rely on more and more abundant financial strength to invest in extending the production chain, expanding production capacity and reducing carbon layout, so as to realize more prominent competitive advantages in the long term. Taking the three leading coal chemical companies in the industry as an example, their planned production capacity is very abundant. Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) Ningxia phase III olefin project is under construction, and 4 million tons of olefins and supporting coal in Inner Mongolia are planned. After all put into operation, coal to olefins is expected to expand several times and the cost is expected to continue to be reduced Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) Dezhou base plans to have electrolyte phase II project, BDO, PA66, degradable plastics and other high value-added products, while Jingmen base plans to build a new syngas platform in 2023 Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) after Sinochem became the owner, it has sufficient funds to start a new round of capital expenditure plan, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of caprolactam · nylon 6 project, 1.2 million tons of bisphenol A and 240000 tons of ethylene downstream integration project. Under the marginal change of policy correction + steady growth, the approval and construction of the above-mentioned leading new coal chemical projects are also expected to speed up significantly and steadily fulfill its long-term logic.
Investment advice
Continue to focus on recommending high-quality Baima Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ; Recommended Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) .
Risk tips
Under high oil prices, the transmission logic of chemical prices will be hindered by terminal demand, and its price increase is difficult to be equal to that of crude oil; In addition, the external molecular industry has a large-scale capacity increase in the near future, and the products are facing greater price pressure.
