Core view
In terms of the market, the Wande all a index experienced another in-depth adjustment in the past five trading days, with a cumulative decline of 1.27%. Due to geopolitical reasons, risk aversion is rising, and some representatives of the two sessions suggest using tax tools to cool down “high priced wine” and “sky high priced wine” and set traffic lights for capital; Call for strengthening market supervision; And advocate healthy and civilized drinking in the whole society, Baijiu sector increased volatility. In addition, affected by the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine recently, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of soybeans and corn are at a high level, and the cost pressure of mass products is still relatively large.
Industry trend review
Overall market performance, last week, the CSI 300 fell 1.68% to close at 455163 points, of which the food and beverage industry fell 1.96%, 0.28 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index and ranked 21st among the 28 Shenwan sub industries. In terms of segments, last week, the food and beverage sub sector rose or fell, with meat products rising the most, up 4.06%, followed by seasoning and fermentation products (3.46%) and beer (2.47%); The other largest decline in liquor was 6.98%, followed by Baijiu (-2.52%) and food synthesis (- 1.63%). In terms of individual stocks, Juneyao Grand Healthy Drinks Co.Ltd(605388) (20.12%), St Tongpu (18.60%), Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (17.51%), Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (16.21%) and Fujian Yanjing Huiquan Brewery Co.Ltd(600573) (13.48%) led the rise.
Industry highlights and important announcements this week
(1) according to the wine report, on February 28, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) issued a notice that since March 1, 2022, 54 degrees 500ml Xiangquan liquor (boxed excellent) (2020 version), 52 degrees 500ml Xiangquan liquor (nostalgia) and 52 degrees 500ml Xiangquan liquor (Urban Affairs) have suspended receiving orders (except those within the quota of exclusive stores). (2) According to the micro wine report, from February 28 to March 4, Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) provincial sales company held the 2022 annual marketing conference. Zhou Zhigang, global partner of Fosun and Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) chairman, said that in 2022, the provincial sales company should focus on deepening the transformation in the mode of “brand + consumer + channel”. First, we should deeply cultivate the Northwest market, strengthen brand communication and create a strong brand image in the northwest; Second, we should adhere to “customer-centered” and provide “good products + good services”; Third, we should make policies according to the place and people; Fourth, we should adhere to the enterprise spirit of “being honest and doing things seriously” and improve the comprehensive quality of all staff.
Investment advice
1) after the initial adjustment, the Baijiu sector was pessimistic. Hold tight the Baijiu line and look for two or three lines with high elasticity. We should pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , etc. 2) Although the price increase of mass products last year eased the cost pressure, due to the general rise in global commodity prices and the continuous rise in the prices of many raw materials, the cost side pressure is still relatively large. In addition, the current market demand is still weak, and the phenomenon of high inventory in some sectors exists. We believe that the investment opportunities of the whole board still need to wait.
Risk tips: the risk of epidemic exceeding expectations, food safety risk and market style change risk
