Core view
[market performance] from February 28 to March 4, the CSI 300 index closed at 449643 points, down 2.69% in one week and 8.99% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 344765, down 1.18% in one week and 5.28% year to date. Among shenwanyi industries, coal, transportation, real estate and other sectors performed well, with the weekly increase of 2.63% in the transportation industry, ranking second; Since the beginning of the year, the transportation industry has increased by 2.68%, ranking third; In terms of molecular industries, the top three performing industries in the transportation industry are airports (+ 4.48%), ports (+ 4.36%) and shipping (+ 3.25%).
[key information] in order to thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, promote the optimization of the port business environment, decide to reduce and merge the port charges, reduce the pilot fees of coastal ports and improve the tugboat fee charging policy, the notice will be implemented from April 1, 2022. (Ministry of transport of the people’s Republic of China)
[Key announcement] 1) Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) : the company is planning major events related to the change of ownership structure. Therefore, the trading of the company’s shares will be suspended from February 28, 2022, and the suspension is expected to be no more than two trading days. 2) Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) : the total operating revenue of the company is expected to be 462764 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 28.47%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 2.151 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.52%.
[views of this week]
With the rapid rise of oil price, the operation of airlines is under pressure. From February 25 to March 3, due to the war conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the oil price rose rapidly. The price of OPEC package crude oil rose from US $96.67/barrel to US $117.06/barrel, an increase of 21.09%. Aviation fuel cost is the main cost of airlines and has a great impact on profits. According to China business news, some ticket agents have received emails from Beibu Gulf airlines and other Air China companies, and will start to raise the fuel surcharge collection standard of Chinese routes on March 5.
Under the influence of policy incentives and precise epidemic prevention measures, the demand for civil aviation passenger and freight transport is expected to grow rapidly during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry issued on February 18, 2022 put forward a number of measures to reduce aviation fuel costs and alleviate financial difficulties, so as to help the civil aviation industry recover. The implementation of precise epidemic prevention policy also makes people still have confidence and possibility to travel. The 14th five year plan of civil aviation defines 20212022 as the recovery period and savings period, while 20232025 is the growth period and release period. The focus will be to expand the Chinese market and restore the international market. 2022 may become the turning point for civil aviation to accelerate the upward movement. According to the prediction of the 14th five year plan of civil aviation, the passenger traffic volume will increase from 420 million to 930 million from 2020 to 2025, and the CAGR is 17.2%. It is expected to return to the pre epidemic level (660 million people) in 2023; The volume of air cargo and mail transportation will increase from 6.77 million tons to 9.5 million tons, with a CAGR of 7.0%.
Investment advice
With the rapid rise of short-term oil prices, airlines may transfer the cost pressure to consumers to curb some travel demand. However, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the demand for civil aviation passenger transport has shown strong resilience, while the demand for freight has quickly exceeded the pre epidemic level, mainly due to the rapid and effective control of the epidemic in China and the recovery of the economy. In the medium and long term, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the government’s relief policies and precise epidemic prevention measures, the demand for civil aviation passenger and freight is expected to grow rapidly, promoting the sustained recovery of the air transport industry, including Air China Limited(601111) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , etc.
Risk tips
Fluctuation of crude oil price and exchange rate; The disturbance of epidemic situation outside China has intensified; Epidemic control exceeded expectations
