Industry dynamic information
Industry Overview:
From the performance of each sub sector of transportation relative to CSI 300, the overall recovery of transportation sector is obvious this week (February 28 – March 4). This week, the aviation and airport sectors rose by 2.23% and 4.99% respectively, with relatively stable performance.
Aviation: since March 5, the fuel surcharge of many airlines on Chinese routes has doubled and increased, which is greatly affected by the continuous rise of international oil prices. Since March 5, the fuel surcharge of many airlines on Chinese routes has doubled and increased. Since March 1, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and other airlines have successively issued a notice to adjust the fuel surcharge for air tickets on Chinese routes. The fuel surcharge for routes over 800 kilometers has been adjusted from the original 20 yuan to 40 yuan; The fuel surcharge for routes below 800 km (inclusive) is adjusted from 10 yuan to 20 yuan. The fuel surcharge adjustment is mainly due to the rise in oil prices. For airlines, the average single passenger income will rise by about 14 yuan, which will help reduce the pressure of aviation fuel cost.
Europe, the United States and Russia have closed their airspace, and the routes from Europe and the United States to Asia have been grounded. At present, Asian and Middle East Airlines are still operating. The subsequent air freight prices may continue to rise, and the profitability of Asian airlines may be improved. Since February 27, the European Union, Canada and the United States have successively announced the closure of airspace to Russian aircraft; The Russian government announced countermeasures to close the airspace of 36 countries, including all 27 EU Member States. Affected by this, some routes from Europe to Asia and North America to Asia have been grounded, and are re planning their application routes to try to fly around Russian airspace. Take the KLM bypass flight as an example. The flight time of the flight is nearly 2 hours longer than that before the bypass flight, and about 14 tons of fuel are used more. With reference to the ex factory price of aviation kerosene of 5434 yuan / ton in February 2022, the increase of fuel cost alone will exceed 70000 yuan. According to cargo facts, about 20% of the world’s air cargo volume will be affected by the capacity of the affected flights, and about 25% of the air cargo between Europe and Asia may need to find alternative transportation modes. At present, major airlines in Asia and the Middle East are still using Russian airspace.
The trial operation of direct flights between China and the UK has begun, and the trial operation of point-to-point resumption of domestic routes has been gradually promoted. On March 3, virgin announced that it plans to fly two direct stress test flights between China and the UK in mid March. The destination is Shanghai London, and the flights from London to Shanghai will limit the passenger capacity. Previously, China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) has announced that it will open the first China UK direct flight from London Heathrow airport to Guangzhou on March 17, 2022, Air China Limited(601111) may join the current round of China UK double flight test flight.
Continue to pay attention to international route policies, and the aviation supply and demand structure is expected to reverse, or usher in the situation of simultaneous rise in volume and price. 1) The liberalization of international routes will bring about the recovery of international tourists and drive the recovery of overall passenger transport demand. 2) Under the influence of the epidemic, the introduction of aircraft has been greatly reduced, or will be lower than the growth rate of demand. 3) The reform of ticket price marketization has been continuously promoted, and the profit elasticity is expected to be improved.
