Core view
Under the real estate underpinning thinking, the boundary of policy force is widened
According to the annual economic growth target of 5.5%, it is expected that "stabilizing real estate" will become the key to supporting the stabilization of growth rate. We judge that the growth rate of real estate investment will ensure positive growth, and the land investment side is the crux of maintaining the stability of annual growth rate, which is related to how to effectively guide the restoration of enterprise confidence. Therefore, the optimization of policy level at the current time is expected to increase step by step, The annual growth rate of real estate investment will show a trend of high before and low after. The overall tone is in line with the rules. In the work report, the emphasis is placed on "housing instead of speculation" and "three stability". The breaking of the policy boundary is still a false proposition from a global perspective. However, in conjunction with the recent chairman Guo Shuqing's statement that "the momentum of financial bubbles in real estate bubble is reversed" and the relevant description of supporting housing demand, the policy direction has been reversed. The easing of real estate policy based on risk prevention intention is expected to run through the whole year.
From the perspective of time dimension, with the acceleration of the decline of industrial fundamental indicators in the first two months, some cities have entered the channel of loose adjustment under the framework of urban implementation since March, and it is urgent to rely on the deregulation of demand side policies to revitalize confidence; From the perspective of spatial dimension, since the current policies are still in the stage of historical strictness, the policy optimization tools need not be limited to the adjustment of purchase and loan restriction, increase of provident fund amount and house purchase subsidy. There is also a large space for the reduction of real interest rate of housing loan. It is a more effective policy evolution path to adjust for rigid demand and improved demand. Overall, we judge that the effective implementation of the combined boxing policy is expected to make the industry hit the bottom and pick up the growth rate at the end of the second quarter.
We should not only make a big cake, but also divide the cake well, and explore the "new model" under the increment of "new citizens".
On March 4, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the central bank issued a notice emphasizing "implementing differentiated housing credit policies based on urban policies, reasonably determining the standard of the first housing mortgage loan for new citizens who meet the purchase conditions, and improving the convenience of borrowing and repayment". The 300 million new citizen's scope is basically due to the fact that the registered residence system is not compatible with the "new urbanization" oriented by human being. Through improving the identification standards and the qualification of the new citizens, the promotion of social mobility through registered residence system reform is expected to become an important incremental breakthrough.
Considering that risk control is still the focus of policy at this stage, the incremental support of floating population is expected to avoid the further evolution of real estate risk, whether for the total demand or house price. Matching the flow of population in the next stage through "new model" will become the main direction of policy exploration. First, the liberalization of house purchase qualification restrictions will get a substantive breakthrough; Secondly, we should give support to the new citizens in the field of housing finance. For the new citizens who have the qualification and ability to buy houses, we should reasonably meet their housing loan needs. We should also reasonably determine the mortgage loan standard of the first house; In addition, for such groups, we still need to accelerate the construction and improvement of affordable rental housing, public rental housing, transformation of old residential areas and other fields, and the future development orientation of the industry will gradually explore in the direction of "ensuring people's livelihood".
The reconstruction of industry development mode and pattern meets the transformation of logical thinking
At the current time point, real estate enterprises still face the pressure of credit crisis and centralized debt repayment. The policy assistance for the liquidity of real estate enterprises can not solve all problems. The negative feedback effect of sales and investment is still difficult to eliminate in the short term. The switching process of real estate "old kinetic energy" mode also means that the timely liquidation of some highly leveraged enterprises disappears. In the transformation process of real estate from increment to stock and high cycle to quality and efficiency improvement, only enterprises that comply with the times can enjoy dividends. Real estate enterprises will also usher in the change of business model and the continuous and in-depth layout of diversified fields.
On the one hand, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors in the future. The accelerated liquidation within the industry also means the emergence of opportunities to improve the degree of concentration; On the other hand, active exploration in the stock field, such as urban renewal, long-term rental apartments and the transformation of old communities, will help real estate enterprises realize their social value and improve their profit model simultaneously to achieve long-term development. With a longer time dimension, the in-depth layout in the fields of commercial management, property management and agent construction will constitute a new growth pole for real estate enterprises. We continue to recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development.
Risk tip: the re outbreak of the epidemic has an impact on economic expectations, the regulation policies of the real estate industry have been tightened more than expected, the real estate sales and settlement have been significantly lower than expected, and the house price has fallen more than expected.
