Under the real estate underpinning thinking, the policy force boundary is widened. According to the 5.5% economic growth target proposed in the government work report of the two sessions, “stabilizing real estate” is expected to become the key to supporting the stabilization of growth rate. We judge that the growth rate of real estate investment will ensure positive growth. At the current time, the optimization of policy level is expected to increase step by step, and the growth rate of real estate investment in the whole year will show a trend of high before low. The overall tone is in line with the rules. In the work report, the emphasis is placed on “housing instead of speculation” and “three stability”. The breaking of the policy boundary is still a false proposition from a global perspective. However, in conjunction with the recent chairman Guo Shuqing’s statement that “the momentum of financial bubbles in real estate bubble is reversed” and the relevant description of supporting housing demand, the policy direction has been reversed. The easing of real estate policy based on risk prevention intention is expected to run through the whole year.
Since March, under the framework of urban policy implementation, some cities have entered the channel of loose adjustment, and it is urgent to rely on the deregulation of demand side policies to revitalize confidence; Policy optimization tools need not be limited to the adjustment of purchase and loan restrictions, increase of provident fund amount, house purchase subsidies, etc. there is also a large space for the reduction of real interest rate of housing loans. It is a more effective policy evolution path to adjust for rigid demand and improved demand. Overall, we judge that the effective implementation of the combined boxing policy is expected to make the industry hit the bottom and pick up the growth rate at the end of the second quarter.
Investment strategy: broad credit background + policy deregulation, alpha beta. In the context of steady growth, we believe that the release of policies will be strengthened step by step, non hot cities will break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. For real estate enterprises, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development model in the future, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors to be paid attention to in the medium and long term. Accelerating the liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . China’s overseas development.
