Industry dynamic information
Industry Overview:
From the performance of each sub sector of transportation relative to CSI 300, the overall recovery of transportation sector is obvious this week (February 28 – March 4). This week, the comprehensive logistics sector rose by 1.86%, of which the raw material supply chain service sector rose by 4.63%, performing well.
Commodity supply chain: prices soared under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the boom shifted to the supply chain
The Bloomberg commodity spot index rose nearly 9% this week, its best weekly performance since September 1974, and various commodities soared. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia, the market panicked about the shortage of energy, grain and metals in the short term. The Bloomberg commodity spot index, which tracks 23 futures contracts, rose nearly 9% this week, its best weekly performance since September 1974. Among them, crude oil is one of the key driving factors. On March 4, the spot price of Brent crude oil in the UK broke through to US $120.33 per barrel, an increase of nearly 50% since the beginning of 2022. In terms of metals, the prices of commodities such as nickel, copper and aluminum soared further as the supply chain continued to be affected. In terms of food, Russia and Ukraine are the world’s major exporters of wheat, corn and sunflower oil. There is a substitution relationship between sunflower oil and soybean oil. This week, the wheat futures contract on the Chicago Futures Exchange rose 40%, the largest weekly increase; Corn rose 16%; Soybeans rose 5%.
China’s commodity price regulation has become stricter, the policy regulation of iron ore and coal has remained high-pressure, and the “temperature difference” outside China needs to be reduced. On February 28, the national development and Reform Commission said that at present, the supply and demand of the iron ore market is generally stable, and China’s inventory is at a high level for many years. Recently, prices have risen too fast and there is speculation. The national development and Reform Commission will pay close attention to the changes in iron ore market prices and severely crack down on illegal acts such as spreading false information, bid up prices and malicious speculation. Previously, on February 23, the national development and Reform Commission required coal price index institutions to speed up rectification and strictly regulate the sampling behavior of price index in view of the obvious inconsistency between some coal price indexes and the actual level of market coal price; At the same time, we will continue to monitor the coal price in the coal market.
The prosperity index of China’s logistics industry continues to be in the boom range. Although the number of logistics employees has decreased slightly due to the Spring Festival, the decline range is significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years. According to the data released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, as of March 2, 2022, China’s highway logistics freight rate index was 100319 points, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, basically the same as last week; In February 2022, the prosperity index of China’s logistics industry was 51.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in the boom range.
In the post epidemic era, the world’s major economies continued to recover and the demand for bulk commodities continued to be strong; Superimposed on the continuous escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, all kinds of supplies may be impacted, and bulk commodities may usher in a bull market, with a high outlook or transfer to the supply chain. Referring to the historical trend, the share price of commodity traders tends to be the same as that of commodities. It is suggested to pay attention to Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) .
