\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 032 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) )
In this report, we will focus on the company's channel reform and further sort out 1) what has the company done right? 2) What does channel reform mean for companies and dealers? 3) How to understand channel reform from a financial perspective?
What did the company do right?
The company's channel reform includes: 1) channel efficiency improvement: online promotion of direct marketing and one inventory mode. 2) pay attention to new channels: increase tiktok channel input. Referring to the channel reform cases of Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and Galan group, we believe that "one inventory" is of great significance for revitalizing consumer goods with low channel profits and high sensitivity to inventory cost or transportation timeliness.
We believe that the company's biggest α Because of the stability of goods and prices in the distribution system, it is less difficult to promote channel reform. 1) The company's product structure is dominated by long-life essential products, "one inventory" further strengthens the turnover rate of the channel system. 2) "One inventory" means that the channel can sell new products at a lower capital cost without pressing the goods, which is a profit increment and boost for the channel.
What does channel reform mean for companies and dealers?
Company: operation efficiency is improved and consumption insight is enhanced. Under the first inventory mode, inventory and order information are shared, which improves the efficiency of the company's inventory management and drives the improvement of the efficiency of the supply chain. The product consumption insight is enhanced, the promotion and drainage is expected to form a joint force, and the dividend of emerging channels is expected to be realized.
Dealers: the focus of functions has shifted to operators, and the centripetal force has been enhanced.
How to understand channel reform from a financial perspective?
Company: 1) the level of net profit increased slightly. Assuming that in the future, the proportion of online appliances and online cookers will reach 80% and 60%, of which the proportion of direct sales will be 50% respectively, the channel reform will increase the net interest rate of electrical appliances by 0.64% and cookers by 0.66%. Considering the product structure of domestic cookers and appliances, the overall net interest rate will be increased by 0.65%. 2) The turnover rate is under pressure, and all channels improve efficiency and roe. At present, the company's inventory scale has increased significantly, but the turnover days have not increased significantly. We think the company's efficiency has been improved.
Dealers: the asset turnover speed is accelerated and roe is improved.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's short-term performance is highly deterministic, there is no need to worry too much about the medium-term competition pattern, and the ability to expand products at low prices of long-term big brands remains. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 23 to be RMB 1.944/23.97/2.857 billion, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the cost of raw materials continues to rise, the competition pattern worsens, and the promotion of innovation is less than expected.
