\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 100 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) )
Event: on March 7, the company released the performance express. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 9.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.51%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.51%; The net profit of the parent company decreased by 2.608 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.608 billion yuan.
Core view: performance meets expectations. In 2021, the company’s cost and demand are under pressure. Cost side: raw materials, rising freight, impact of power restriction, depreciation of US dollar, etc; Demand side: the excavator industry fluctuates greatly. It has entered the adjustment period since Q2 in 2021. Under the pressure of industry demand, the company’s products also have the pressure of price reduction. Under multiple pressures, the company achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit, outperforming the industry (the sales growth rate of excavator industry was 4.6% in 2021). Driven by the optimization of product structure and the strengthening of internal control, the company’s profitability increased instead of decreasing. In 2021, Q4 net profit rate reached 33%, which was a single quarter high, reflecting super alpha value. Looking forward to the future, the company will continue to increase R & D and actively enter the field of general hydraulic, which is expected to open the third growth curve, with both scarcity and growth, and strong volatility of ironing performance.
Performance surpasses the industry. In 2022, new products and exports are expected to hedge against fluctuations in the Chinese market and bring new growth in performance: according to the company’s announcement, revenue by product: ① excavator sector: in 2021, the company’s revenue growth rate of excavator oil cylinder and hydraulic pump valve was 12% and 38% respectively, compared with the sales growth rate of excavator industry of 4.6%, and the company’s performance far exceeded that of the industry, This shows that on the one hand, the market share of the company’s Excavator oil cylinder and pump valve products is increasing, on the other hand, it also reflects the further optimization of the company’s product structure and the continuous large-scale production of Zhongda excavator pump valves with greater value; ② Non standard sector: in 2021, the company’s non-standard oil cylinder revenue increased by 24%, surpassing the excavator oil cylinder, and the revenue scale is expected to exceed 1.6 billion yuan (the revenue of this sector in 2020 is 1.37 billion yuan), which is conducive to the smooth performance fluctuation of the company. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the company’s product structure and market structure are expected to be further optimized: on the one hand, non excavation new products are expected to continue to contribute new increments of performance, such as the continuous development of v30g industrial pump in marine engineering, shield machine and other fields; The technical breakthrough of the hydraulic system of the arm type aerial work platform drives the collaborative sales of the arm type pump and motor; As well as other compact pump valves, cycloidal motors and other new products batch shipment; On the other hand, the company has strengthened the construction and layout of overseas service outlets and overseas factories, and the proportion of export revenue is expected to increase.
Under multiple external adverse factors, the company’s profitability bucked the trend and showed strong alpha: from the perspective of net interest rate, in 2021, the company’s comprehensive net interest rate was 28.94%, year-on-year + 0.15pct, and the net interest rate of single Q4 was 33.3%, year-on-year + 2.28pct, a single quarter high, and the net interest rate after deduction was still + 1.7pct. Under the influence of external adverse factors such as the rising price of raw materials and the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, the company still ensures the stability of its profitability. We believe that it is mainly driven by the continuous optimization of the company’s product structure. Specifically, the revenue scale of the hydraulic pump and valve sector with high gross profit continues to expand due to the impact of factors such as scale effect, batch shipment of new products and the increase of the proportion of medium and large excavation. We expect that the company’s profitability is expected to remain stable in the future: under the background of ensuring the supply and price of raw materials, the pressure on the cost side is the worst, the status quo will be maintained, the product structure will be further optimized, the market share of Zhongda digging pump and valve still has room to improve, and non-standard new products continue to be sold in large quantities to maintain the overall profitability.
Looking forward to 2022, the policy underpinning effect of the construction machinery sector is expected to appear. With its scarcity and growth, the company has a strong ability to smooth the fluctuation of performance: from the perspective of the industry, under the main tone of the policy of steady growth, the central economic conference proposed to carry out infrastructure construction moderately in advance, and the government work report proposed a special debt limit of 3.65 trillion in 2022, And accelerate the issuance work. The downstream investment side is expected to improve marginally and boost the demand of the construction machinery sector. Taking excavator as an example, under the influence of policy catalysis and the base of “high before low in 2021”, the sales growth rate in 2022 is expected to rebound quarter by quarter. From the perspective of the company, ① scarcity: on the one hand, the hydraulic parts industry has high entry barriers. On the other hand, after years of cooperation and accumulation, the company binds many high-quality customers, including caterpillar, Hitachi, Sany and other well-known main engine manufacturers at home and abroad, highlighting brand value and high position in the industry chain. ② Growth: the company’s product expansion and global layout continue to deepen. The company’s proposed additional projects, Mexican factory, electric cylinder plant planning and production expansion of hydraulic parts in non excavation field are advancing in an orderly manner. In the future, the company will transform into a supplier of a full range of hydraulic products, and the fluctuation ability of ironing cycle will be further strengthened.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 9.31 billion yuan, 9.56 billion yuan and 10.53 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.5%, 2.7% and 10.2% respectively, and the net profit will be 2.694 billion yuan, 2.825 billion yuan and 3.170 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.5%, 4.9% and 12.5% respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 28.4, 27.1 and 24.1 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 64.8 yuan, which is equivalent to 26.5 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk tip: investment in infrastructure and real estate has fallen sharply; The development progress of new products is less than expected; The downstream price competition intensifies, and the cost side pressure is transmitted to the upstream.
