\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event overview
On March 7, the company released the February 2022 production and marketing express. In February, the company’s wholesale sales of 143464 vehicles were + 36.5% year-on-year and – 39.5% month on month. In February, the company’s automobile output was 151919, up + 46.2% year-on-year and – 30.5% month on month.
From January to February, the company’s total wholesale sales of 380696 vehicles were + 18.1% year-on-year; From January to February, the company’s cumulative output of cars was 370532, a year-on-year increase of + 25.3%.
Analysis and judgment:
The performance was stable at the beginning of the year, and the sales center increased steadily
At the beginning of the year, the performance was steady, and the overall sales center gradually increased. From January to February, the company’s cumulative automobile sales volume was 381000, a year-on-year increase of + 18.1%. Ai’an, GAC motor and joint venture brands made concerted efforts. The cumulative sales volume of ai’an was 25000, with a year-on-year increase of + 131.3%; GAC motor’s cumulative sales volume was 60000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 25.5%; GAC Honda’s cumulative sales volume was 136000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%; GAC Toyota’s cumulative sales volume was 150000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%.
Joint venture steadily resumed, Honda Toyota Qi improved
The joint venture brand recovered steadily under the improvement of core shortage, and the production and sales of GAC Honda increased by nearly 40% year-on-year in February. The output of GAC Honda in February was 60633 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 39.5%; The sales volume in February was 57102 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 39.1%. The main models performed steadily. Accord, haoying and Binzhi all broke 10000 in February, with sales of 16000, 12000 and 10000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 79.5%, + 14.1% and – 4.3% respectively.
Toyota’s production and sales have recovered steadily, and the main models continue to sell well. GAC Toyota produced 56269 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of + 38.4%; The sales volume in February was 50100 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 20.7%. Camry, leiling and other main models performed steadily. The sales volume in February was 14000 and 10000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 203.6% and – 26.8% respectively. We expect that the reduction of core shortage is expected to accelerate the volume of joint venture models, and the sales volume is expected to increase gradually.
Accelerate the launch of independent new products, and the incremental capacity expansion of ea’an can be expected
The company’s own brand new products have been launched continuously, and the sales volume has climbed rapidly. GAC motor gs4plus went public in June 2021, and the terminal performance improved steadily. In February this year, the sales volume of GS4 series exceeded 10000; Shadow leopard was listed in August 2021, and its sales volume has climbed to more than 10000 in October. GAC motor’s new second-generation gs8 was officially launched in December 2021. In January this year, the wholesale reached 4858 vehicles, with a chain comparison of + 118.7%. It is expected that the sales volume will climb rapidly. In terms of ai’an, the new model aionlxplus was officially launched on January 5 this year, becoming the world’s first mass-produced pure electric vehicle with a endurance of more than 1000km. We believe that the introduction of new cars shows the determination of the high-end layout of ai’an brand. At the same time, the endurance of more than 1000 kilometers has obvious competitive advantages, and the sales volume is expected to increase rapidly.
The expansion of production capacity in ea’an has been completed, and the future increment can be expected. In terms of production capacity, the second phase of production capacity expansion was completed by ai’an, which adopted digital twin plant and big data real-time simulation virtual debugging, which can save 30% of the debugging time; The installation efficiency can be increased by 40% through independent assembly; The overall production efficiency increased by 45% and the customization capacity increased by 35%. We expect that it is expected to drive the rapid improvement of delivery in ea’an.
Investment advice
As the leader of the first-line Japanese joint venture brand, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the growth of demand for replacement and additional purchase; With the continuous improvement of independent competitiveness, the replacement of fuel vehicles is accelerated under the drive of hybrid and intelligent dual core. The product strength of aian continues to be verified, breaking through the bottleneck of pure electric endurance and completing the high-end layout. Maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 75.29/86.26/98.1 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 73.7/99.8/11.76 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 0.71/0.96/1.14 yuan, the closing price of A-Shares on March 7, 2022 will be 11.94 yuan / share, and the PE will be 16.77/12.38/10.51 times, maintaining the “buy” rating of A-Shares of the company.
Risk tips
The sales volume of joint venture models is lower than expected; The profit of independent brand is less than expected; The mitigation of core failure is lower than expected.
