\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
The investment event company released the production and sales express in February. The production and sales in February were 151900 / 143400 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.16% / 36.47%. The production and sales volume is better than the market expectation, and the growth rate is far higher than that of the industry. From January to February 2022, a total of 370500 vehicles / 380700 vehicles were produced and sold, with a year-on-year increase of 25.28% / 18.06%.
Our analysis and judgment
(I) the release of new production capacity has helped the sales of Toyota and ea’an climb, and the sales of many star models have performed beautifully.
By brand, guangben sold 57000 units in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 39.06%, including 16000 units of accord, with a year-on-year increase of + 79.5%, and 3892 units of new Odyssey, with a year-on-year increase of + 114.4%; The new model achieved sales of 5014 vehicles in February; Haoying sold 11715 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%; Binzhi sold 10177 vehicles in February. Guangfeng sold 50000 units in February, a year-on-year increase of + 20.72%, including 14000 units of the popular Camry, a year-on-year increase of + 64%; Hanlanda 7115 units, up + 12.7% year-on-year; High profit Saina sold 4120 units in February. Among independent brands, GAC motor sold 24000 units in February, up + 73.5% year-on-year, including 10100 GS4 units. Thanks to the capacity release after the plant transformation, the production and sales volume of ea’an in February was about 8500 units. We expect the annual sales volume of ea’an to increase from 200000 units to 300000 units.
(II) strong products are in short supply, and the annual sales growth of the company is expected to be better than that of the industry.
The company’s sales volume is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year in 2022, which is much higher than the industry growth rate (expected to be about 5%). The sales volume of joint venture brands GAC Honda and GAC Toyota is expected to be 1 million respectively this year, and the sales volume of independent new energy ai’an is expected to be 300000 this year. According to our grassroots research, at present, the inventory of guangben and Guangfeng is 0.8 and 0.6, and some popular cars still need to wait in line to collect them. The cycle of trumpchi M8, gs8 and other cars is currently 2 months, and many products are in short supply.
(III) the independent listing of aian is imminent, which brings about the reconstruction of the company’s valuation.
After the announcement of the mixed reform in November 2021, ai’an has now entered the employee stock ownership link. We expect to be listed at the end of this year after the completion. Compared with Weilai ideal Xiaopeng, the company’s value will be fully released.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2023 will be 87.8 billion yuan and 100.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.63% and 14.39% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10.061 billion yuan and 11.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96 yuan and 1.14 yuan respectively and PE of 12x / 10x respectively, maintaining the rating of “recommendation”.
Risk tips: 1. Macroeconomic uncertainty; 2. The risk that the sales volume of new energy vehicle industry is lower than expected. 3. The risk of capacity bottleneck caused by chip shortage.
